It’s been a tough year for investors, but the bear market hasn’t relented much just because we are approaching the end of 2022. That said, all this pain has investors looking for the biggest investing opportunities of next year.
Will it be better in 2023? In some ways, yes, as certain assets should enjoy more upside. However, there’s still likely more pain on the way in many asset classes.
Even when we look at just the stock market, some industries and sectors continue to do quite well, while others have been obliterated. Tech is in a job recession, and the stocks have been pummeled while defense and energy stocks continue to roar.
Considering all sectors and asset classes, one can see how the biggest investing opportunities may not be what they seem.
Biggest Investing Opportunities: Treasury Bonds
Taking a global view of the market is very difficult, and it’s not easy to navigate. There’s an infinite number of moving parts and considerations, so bear with me a bit.
In just ten days, we’ll likely get confirmation that the 10-year Treasury bond just had its worst year in more than a century. Since 1990, the worst one-year performance for the 10-year was an 8% loss in 1994. This year? It’s down more than 15%.
The iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) is setting up for the worst one-year performance in its history.
That has me thinking that the 10-year and other intermediate-term bonds can make a rebound next year. That’s particularly true when we are going into 2023 with a very hawkish Fed and now central bankers around the globe acting in a coordinated hawkish fashion in an effort to crush inflation.
While it will eventually work, it will likely put us in a recession, forcing buyers into Treasuries.
Biggest Investing Opportunities: The Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ)
There are two caveats here with the Invesco QQQ Trust Series (NASDAQ:QQQ).
First, the safer alternative would likely be the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY). Second, the QQQ very well could make new lows in 2023 before the bottom is in.
My personal opinion — and it’s just that, an opinion — is that the market could bottom in the March/April time frame before turning higher.
With a hawkish Fed and a recession likely on the way, there’s no reason the market has a reason to avoid making new 52-week lows. It may have bottomed already, or it might mark the low in September 2023. No one knows — and I’m no exception.
However, the S&P 500 has rallied 80% of the time over the last 80 years. Until recently, the QQQ has been a monstrous outperformer vs. the SPY. Like bonds, these types of years are not common, and I expect us to get back on track in the next 12 months.
If that’s the case, I expect the QQQ to lead us out of those depths, and the reasoning is two-fold: First, the QQQ has a lot of exposure to mega-cap tech, which has some of the best financials in the world. Second, this year, tech was hit disproportionately hard, and the rebound can be stronger than some of the market’s counterparts.
Bonus point: The 60/40 portfolio is set for one of its ten worst performances since 1900. In 9 out of 10 of the prior scenarios, the 60/40 portfolio rebounded in the following year while averaging a double-digit gain. The only year it didn’t — in 1931 — was during the Great Depression.
Biggest Investing Opportunities: Profitable Growth Stocks
Perhaps a little controversial, but it’s impossible for me to look away from growth stocks at this point. These are the names that create outsized, long-term gains when bought at the correct time. Buying on the way down has been a sucker’s game this year, as investors keep thinking these stocks won’t go lower.
Instead, I like the idea of looking at profitable growth stocks. The ones that have been beaten down are now getting cheap on a price-to-earnings basis. The others — those without positive free cash flow and earnings — are hard to lean on as they have no bottom-line support.
A small list in no particular order includes:
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL, NASDAQ:GOOG), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL), DigitalOcean (NASDAQ:DOCN), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD).
That doesn’t mean all of these stocks are a buy right now or that they won’t make new lows. But they are names to keep an eye on in 2023 as potentially great long-term buys.
On the date of publication, Bret Kenwell held a long position in NVDA and PYPL. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
