AMD Stock Is Telling Two Different Stories

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Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is expected to make their third-quarter earnings announcement on October 23, 2019. The chipmaker has been in the news for many reasons. Some of those reasons have been good and some not so good. And this good news, bad news dynamic shows up in the AMD stock price.

AMD Stock Is Telling Two Different Stories

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The company’s stock price is up for the year, but down significantly from its earlier highs. With conflicting information about its future direction, I expect investors to wait for the earnings announcement before making firm decisions on AMD stock.

Advanced Micro Is Gaining Market Share with Several New Deals

First, there is news that supports an increase in Advanced Micro Devices stock. In August, AMD announced that Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) would be using the company’s 15-inch processor in one of the latest versions of its Surface laptops. This isn’t a move that analysts expect to generate significant revenue for AMD immediately. However it is the first step that Microsoft has taken away from Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).

This followed on the heels of another major announcement from AMD in August. This is when the company announced that Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) would be using their second-generation EPYC chip in their data centers. This was another market share win over Intel.

AMD Could Be a Victim of Apple’s Success

However, there are also reasons for investors to proceed with caution. One reason comes from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). Apple is experiencing better-than-expected sales of their new iPhones. Some analysts (and writers like me) thought customers would hold off because of the 5G lineup coming next year. However, Apple has told suppliers to boost production for all three phones by 10%.

This is significant because, unlike Intel, AMD does not produce its own chips. However, AMD is enjoying a competitive edge over Intel by using 7-nanometer cores in its third-generation Ryzen (Zen 2) processor. Intel is not planning to release its own 7-nanometer chip until 2021.

Because of this, PC makers have been turning to AMD for their business. However, if Apple needs 7-nanometer chips to accommodate demand for their new iPhone, then it’s likely that AMD will experience delays that could give Intel time to catch up.

Short Interest Is Predicting a Decline in the AMD Stock Price

For the second time in two months, AMD stock is seeing a sharp increase in short interest. In fact, short interest for AMD is now at its highest point in 14 months. This would support the argument that institutional investors believe AMD shares are heading lower as the calendar year comes to an end.

In the final two weeks of September, Bill Maurer, an analyst and contributor for Seeking Alpha, observed a rise in short interest of 26.5 million shares. This was the largest such jump for AMD stock since July 2015.

Don’t Expect Much Help from a Trade Deal

A potential piece of good news for AMD stock would come from a resolution of the U.S.-China trade war. Late last week, the U.S. and China were involved in high-level negotiations, which eventually led to a temporary truce.

However, the consensus from the beginning is that a trade deal will provide a lift if the two superpowers can agree on the thorny issues surrounding intellectual property and Huawei. Trade restrictions have made U.S. chip suppliers unreliable for Chinese companies. A trade deal will only help that if these issues are part of a permanent deal, which seems unlikely.

What Is the Market Expecting from AMD Stock?

The market is projecting single-digit revenue growth for the year. While that may not sound impressive, you have to consider the context. AMD reported a significant decline in revenue during the first half of the year. Therefore, analysts are projecting Q4 revenue growth of 51% and 25% year-over-year revenue growth in 2020.

Will AMD be able to live up to such elevated expectations? We’ll start to find out when they release their Q3 earnings. Until then, I expect Advanced Micro Devices stock to stay in a fairly tight range.

As of this writing, Chris Markoch did not have a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Chris Markoch is a freelance financial copywriter who has been covering the market for over five years. He has been writing for InvestorPlace since 2019.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2019/10/amd-stock-telling-two-different-stories/.

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