For years, the only thing that seemed to matter to the stock market was the Federal Reserve and the flow of cheap money stimulus. Economic data was largely brushed aside, and only considered in the lens of what it could mean for interest rates. Corporate earnings, which have been in an outright recession for more than a year, have been ignored.
But with the summer coming to a close, investors have something new to worry about: The epic political slugfest between presidential hopefuls Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
Both are seen by their political opponents as the reincarnation of pure evil. And both are running on a set of wildly different policies resulting in a binary post-election outcome for Wall Street to consider.
If the Donald wins, trade policies will likely be tightened, energy exploration loosened and taxes lowered. If Clinton wins, coal is dead, biotechs are dead and the big banks are likely to get even bigger.
Here are 10 big-cap stocks that are set to rise, or fall, depending on the Election Day outcome.
Election Day Stocks: Walmart (WMT)
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) shares have enjoyed a nice rally out of its late 2015 low. But that could be undone by a Trump victory, as WMT is extremely sensitive to the path of low-skill wages.
Donald Trump’s cornerstone issue is immigration, and his desire to stop illegal inflows and more strictly enforce existing deportation laws. With estimates of around 11 million illegals currently in the country, this will effectively shrink the low-wage workforce and push wages higher.
The company will next report results on Nov. 17 before the bell. Analysts are looking for earnings of 97 cents per share on revenues of $117.9 billion.
Election Day Stocks: Goldman Sachs (GS)
Yet Donald Trump, via an advisor, seems to desire the reimplementation of the Depression-era Glass-Steagall Act — repealed by Bill Clinton in 1999 — that separates riskier investment banks from commercial banks. Hillary Clinton said back in November that she opposed this idea, which is good news for GS.
The company will next report results on Oct. 18 before the bell. Analysts are looking for earnings of $3.73 per share on revenues of $7.3 billion. Edge Pro subscribers are enjoying a 7% gain in their Sept $165 GS calls.
Election Day Stocks: Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) has rebounded strongly from the lows seen at the start of the year, outpacing the accompanying rebound in crude oil prices.
Trump has advocated American energy independence, which is political lingo for more aggressive drilling for oil and gas in American lands and waters. Clinton, a believer in global warming with a stated preference for renewable energy, has said she will work to cut U.S. oil consumption by a third. A win for Hillary Clinton would be loss for XOM and the oil and gas sector.
The company will next report results on Oct. 28 before the bell. Analysts are looking for earnings of 80 cents per share on revenues of $75.3 billion.
Election Day Stocks: General Dynamics (GD)
Defense contractor General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) has seen shares stall near new highs throughout August no doubt as investors await clarity on the election. Donald Trump has loudly proclaimed that America’s military needs to be rebuilt and strengthened (using the examples of fighter planes older than their pilots) to secure the peace.
Clinton also seems to support a slight increase in military spending (by ending the defense budget sequester), but is focusing on the need to reform the acquisition process by “stretching every dollar.” A Trump victory would be preferred here.
The company will next report results on Oct. 26 before the bell. Analysts are looking for earnings of $2.38 per share on revenues of $7.9 billion.
Election Day Stocks: Newmont Mining (NEM)
Gold miner Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM) would benefit from a Trump victory according to analysts at Citigroup since he represents “significant and perhaps unprecedented” policy uncertainty. Clinton, comparatively, is seen as a “business-as-usual candidate” in their view.
They think a Donald Trump win could push the yellow metal toward the $1,400-an-ounce level in 2017 — which would be great news for NEM and the entire precious metals sector.
The company will next report results on Oct. 26 after the bell. Analysts are looking for earnings of 51 cents per share on revenues of $2.02 billion.
Election Day Stocks: McDonald’s (MCD)
Why? Because, like with WMT, its profitability would be pinched by the upward push on low-skilled wages. The company was downgraded on Aug. 15 by analysts at Argus for this very reason, with rising labor costs already a factor.
The company will next report results on Oct. 25 before the bell. Analysts are looking for earnings of $1.48 per share on revenues of $6.3 billion.
Election Day Stocks: Mylan (MYL)
Mylan NV (NASDAQ:MYL) has been in the news lately for the political blowback it received after raising the price of its popular EpiPen used to save the lives of patients with severe allergies.
Prices have increased more than 400% over the last several years, a move Clinton called “outrageous” and demanded a reversal. She has also outlined a plan to limit drug price increases, requiring pharmaceutical companies to explain price increases and prove they are linked to better care and value.
Trump prefers more consumer-focused reforms of the healthcare system, which likely wouldn’t have as big of an impact on MYL’s bottom line. The company will next report results on Oct. 27 before the bell. Analysts are looking for earnings of $1.57 per share on revenues of $3.2 billion.
Election Day Stocks: Alcoa (AA)
This would add further pressure to profitability at a time when many materials companies are being pressured by reduced fixed asset investment out of China as well as chronic overcapacity in steel, cement, and other industries there.
AA will next report results on Oct. 6 after the close. Analysts are looking for earnings of 11 cents per share on revenues of $5.4 billion.
Election Day Stocks: Bank of America (BAC)
Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) would be hit by many of the same dynamics as Goldman Sachs. That is, a Trump victory would be seen as a negative because of possible increased regulatory burden associated with a stated desire to return to Depression-era divisions between investment and commercial banks.
But another possible concern is Donald Trump’s desire to see a change at the Federal Reserve and the fact that he is no fan of current Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen — which could undermine earnings via increased market volatility.
The company will next report results on Oct. 17 before the bell. Analysts are looking for earnings of 34 cents per share on revenues of $21.1 billion.
Election Day Stocks: UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Health insurance companies like UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH) would be at risk under a Donald Trump presidency and likely prefer Hillary Clinton to win the White House.
Why? Because Clinton plans on extending and increasing the reach of Obamacare, which has forced millions of Americans into coverage. The problem is that adverse selection has kept many young, healthy folks from signing up, preferring instead to pay the tax penalty thereby hurting profit margins in the industry.
Clinton would likely further increase penalties for non-participation, forcing more health premium payers into the system, and boosting profitability.
The company will next report results on Oct. 18 before the bell. Analysts are looking for earnings of $2.08 per share on revenues of $46 billion.