Editor’s note: “20 Election Stocks to Buy if Donald Trump Wins in 2020” was previously published in October 2020. It has since been updated to include the most relevant information available.
When it comes to the topic of election stocks to buy, I have generally suggested that you should consider companies that will do well under President Donald Trump’s second term.
At this, I’m often met with incredulousness. How could this relic of a bygone era win in this fractured period? Quite often, I respond back with, how could he not?
I’m just looking at facts. According to the Pew Research Center, 73% of Americans have an unfavorable view of China, blaming the country for spreading the novel coronavirus. Therefore, in an interview with CGTN America, I explained that this environment was creating fear among Asian Americans, who have turned to firearms for protection. And yes, that is a clue regarding election stocks to buy.
Not only that, the Trump campaign playbook is simple but powerful. Place blame on a demographic that cannot defend themselves politically. Former President George H.W. Bush’s campaign manager, Lee Atwater, utilized this tactic to great effect, helping the elder Bush overcome a steep polling deficit. Sound familiar?
In fact, government agencies, including the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, are already aware of the potential racism that may proliferate for months to come. We could be facing four more years of Trump because this administration knows how to play dirty. However, you can console yourself with these election stocks to buy:
- Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)
- Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC)
- Raytheon Technologies (NYSE:RTX)
- Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT)
- Deere & Company (NYSE:DE)
- Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE:VMC)
- H&R Block (NYSE:HRB)
- Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU)
- Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)
- New York Times (NYSE:NYT)
- AT&T (NYSE:T)
- Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)
- Twitter (NYSE:TWTR)
- Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL)
- General Motors (NYSE:GM)
- The Geo Group (NYSE:GEO)
- Nornickel (OTCMKTS:NILSY)
- Sturm Ruger (NYSE:RGR)
- Smith & Wesson Brands (NASDAQ:SWBI)
- Sportsman’s Warehouse (NASDAQ:SPWH)
Election Stocks: Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Typically, defense stocks perform reliably well due to the U.S. serving as the world’s policeman. Cynically, there’s nothing like a hot conflict — or the threat of one — to move American voters. However, Lockheed Martin has been in a holding pattern since around mid-April. I can see the logic here, with investors of LMT stock worried about internal instability.
Also, the defense industry brings up some of the ugly issues that Americans calling for social change are addressing. Mainly, it is that this sector profiteers from misery. Yes, I get the argument that we need a strong defense umbrella to protect ourselves and our interests abroad. At the same time, let’s not be naïve: This is an ugly business.
Certainly, LMT stock isn’t going to receive much positive PR during this crisis. However, Lockheed Martin should ultimately thrive as one of the best election stocks to buy.
Northrop Grumman (NOC)
You may remember when a media firestorm erupted over The Atlantic’s report that Trump labeled our fallen heroes as “suckers” or “losers.”
Personally, I don’t know if the allegations are true or not. But to paraphrase Fox News’ Tucker Carlson, when he weighed in on the issue of whether a reporter slurred White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany, we’re living in a moment where it’s conceivable.
After all, Trump belittled Senator John McCain, stating, “He’s not a war hero. He’s a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured.” But what does this have to do with Northrop Grumman and NOC stock?
Admittedly, nothing directly tied to the company. However, reports suggest that several service members are furious with the president probably because the accusations seem credible. So, if Trump wins, he has every incentive to bolster NOC stock and its ilk. Thus, the entire defense umbrella is a top priority on this list of election stocks.
Election Stocks: Raytheon Technologies (RTX)
Predicting presidential election stocks to buy is an exercise fraught with risk, which is why I don’t do it often. However, should Trump get his second term, one of the sectors that is most likely to enjoy upside is the defense industry.
For one thing, the president loves the military — well, not enough to join it, of course. Nevertheless, he spearheaded the launch of the Space Force, America’s sixth military branch.
This underlying patriotism should serve companies like Raytheon Technologies well. Obviously, the coronavirus hasn’t dampened our adversaries’ enthusiasm to test our military readiness. From my perspective, having a bullish, outspoken leader like Trump would probably raise morale among our troops, and RTX stock would rise higher under the assumption that the president won’t back down from a challenge.
Moreover, the White House wouldn’t have to play nice on a possible second term. In Trump’s dealings with China, he had to mitigate his instincts, especially in an election year, where a hurting American economy would be the last thing he needs.
If Trump gets reelected, that pesky little detail disappears. And that would be an excellent catalyst for RTX stock.
As you know, Donald Trump has already made Caterpillar great again.
Despite the severe impact of the novel coronavirus, CAT stock finds itself up over 80% since the former real estate mogul’s surprising victory four years ago.
Therefore, this is all about keeping Caterpillar great. And a second term will go a long way for this most favorable of presidential election stocks.
Infamously, Trump’s signature campaign promise was to build the wall. Referring to the U.S.-Mexico border wall, the project has generated much controversy. Certainly, the Democrats would be in no mood to entertain, let alone help fund such efforts. However, a second term would prove that Americans care about border security, putting the left in an awkward position.
Furthermore, Trump would have every incentive to initiate whatever construction projects he can. Americans desperately need jobs, and federal government contracts would go a long way in addressing this need. And with Caterpillar poised to benefit, I forecast a favorable environment for CAT stock if “The Donald” wins out.
Election Stocks: Deere & Company (DE)
During the run-up to the 2016 election, Donald Trump loved talking about Deere & Company.
In his mind, names like Deere and Caterpillar represent the core of American business. And when he discussed the potential of DE stock, he did so in the context of blasting foreign competitors.
DE stock made good as one of the top election stocks to buy for 2016. Throughout Trump’s administration, Deere performed reliably in the markets. And while shares dipped because of the Covid-19 pandemic, they have stormed back to the lead.
Much of this resurgence has to do with improving economic conditions for agriculture. With consumers returning to some semblance of normal, this is a big positive for Deere. Should Trump win again, I envision a supportive environment for DE.
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)
A classic example among presidential election stocks to buy under a conservative administration, Vulcan Materials Company happens to be a name that wasn’t quite made great again.
Instead, VMC stock is roughly level with where it was when Donald Trump first won his White House gig. Obviously, Trump would be eager to change this narrative for Vulcan.
Like Caterpillar, I see significant upside for VMC stock. Naturally, Trump’s “America First” policy augurs well for domestic construction projects. But here’s the thing about Vulcan — very few people expect Trump to win. When people look at the opinion polls, they see Biden beating Trump by wide margins.
In many ways, winning a second term is much less likely than Trump emerging victorious the first time around. So if he pulls off the impossible, expect “bigly” gains for VMC stock.
Finally, Vulcan could act as a hedge. According to Biden’s campaign website, he’s focusing on rebuilding American infrastructure. If that’s true, VMC could claim victory no matter who sits in the Oval Office.
Election Stocks: H&R Block (HRB)
Out of the presidential election stocks to buy on this list, H&R Block features the most convoluted narrative. So, just hear me out for a moment.
Early into his administration, Trump introduced significant changes to the U.S. tax code. Apparently, the changes brought simplification to our taxes.
I didn’t see it that way because any adjustment requires an acclimatization from the taxpayer’s perspective. However, such modifications theoretically benefit HRB stock.
In my prior discussions about the tax preparation firm, I cited the significant catalyst of the gig economy. Essentially another term for independent contractors, gig workers are not tethered to traditional employment arrangements. Instead, they can work for multiple organizations and are usually paid by work products submitted as opposed to time spent.
But because of this distinction, those who participate in the gig economy must submit different tax forms than your standard W2 employee. These forms can be complicated, especially for first timers, thus aiding the case for HRB stock.
Further, the novel coronavirus has made most people temporarily a gig worker. If they choose this occupation permanently, they will benefit most from a president that values entrepreneurship. Thus, consider H&R Block if Trump emerges victorious.
As I mentioned above, taxes under the Trump administration’s overhaul have gotten more confusing.
Apparently, I’m not the only one feeling this way. To be fair, some of the criticisms of the changes are due to perception. You may not have had as large a refund as prior years, but your tax liability could have been reduced.
That said, I believe business and financial software giant Intuit will have a long pathway of success under a second Trump term.
As you might have guessed, millions of Americans want to work from home permanently. For many organizations, the productivity and efficiency of remote work has been surprisingly encouraging.
Of course, employment from home is still employment, which may not help INTU stock much. But it’s likely that many workers will branch out on their own. That would make them independent contractors, bolstering Intuit as one of the viable election stocks to buy.
Election Stocks: Microsoft (MSFT)
One benefit, if I can even call it that, from the novel coronavirus is that people have reconsidered the concept of work.
As I said earlier, people don’t necessarily need to be concentrated in a centralized location for them to be productive. But because millions have transitioned from cubicles to their living rooms, it has been more important than ever to provide home-based business solutions.
Personally, Microsoft has been a lifesaver. It’s not just that it owns the PC operating system market. Frankly, I find it impossible to do business without the company’s Office 365 business applications.
When everybody uses programs like Word or Excel, not having access is unacceptable. So, sheer dominance is one reason to buy MSFT stock.
Another reason is that the underlying company has offered platforms that have been vital to remote connectivity, such as Microsoft Teams. As we move toward a post-pandemic future, Microsoft will likely carry this momentum, making MSFT stock a worthwhile pick among election stocks to buy.
New York Times (NYT)
As you know — and as he consistently reminds us — Trump has waged a war against the fake news media.
From his worldview, there is no faker news outlet than the New York Times. So, why would I even consider this Trump punching bag as one of the election stocks to buy?
Well, if you think about it, NYT stock would be one of the best election stocks, assuming a Trump victory. If there’s one thing I learned about news, it’s that “if it bleeds, it leads.” Now, some folks assume this phrase to be meant literally. However, the sentiment applies metaphorically as well. In other words, it is controversy that drives viewership.
And let’s face it — Trump is about narcissism first. Deep down, I believe he loves the attention. Like a partner in crime, the New York Times obliges. If Biden were to become president, it will be a sad four years for the media. After all, what would there be to report?
Yes, I acknowledge that this is counterintuitive. But believe me, you’ll want NYT stock if Trump wins.
Election Stocks: AT&T (T)
Frankly, I wouldn’t label AT&T as an example of presidential election stocks to buy.
Rather, I believe T stock is relevant no matter who is in charge. As one of the few companies that can credibly roll out a 5G infrastructure in the U.S., AT&T represents a vital cog in our technological arms race with China.
In that sense, T stock would benefit from a Trump victory. However, even if Biden beats him, I think AT&T stakeholders can sleep easy.
But as a stakeholder myself, I know I will sleep easier if Trump wins. That’s because the incumbent will likely benefit AT&T holistically. As you might have guessed, I’m referring to CNN, which the telecommunications giant owns. While the cable news network frequently criticizes the president, it also loves him. Just think about the record ratings.
Trust me. If anybody else controlled the White House, the ratings would go nowhere. But love him or hate him, Trump knows how to create a scene. And four more years of that is wonderful news for T stock.
By the same logic, investors seeking profitable election stocks to buy should take a good look at Amazon.
Of course, Trump and Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos have butted heads due to ideological differences. Therefore, on the surface, AMZN stock seems a poor pick under a second term for Trump.
Gently, I would argue that this is myopic thinking. One of the reasons why the stock market has held up so well is due to the Amazon vacuum cleaner.
Put another way, as small businesses struggle under the weight of the pandemic, Amazon is sucking up the market share that would normally be served by them. Because no real challenger exists, AMZN stock will continue to move higher.
As well, Amazon has famously (or infamously, depending on your perspective) rebuffed efforts at unionization. Unfortunately for the organization, the pandemic has brought labor rights issues to the forefront. However, a Republican administration is unlikely to support unions.
It is a strange partnership, Amazon and the Trump White House, but it’s one that could cynically work, meaning that you shouldn’t ignore AMZN as one of the better election stocks.
Election Stocks: Twitter (TWTR)
For years, the Trump administration has battled Silicon Valley for pushing a liberal agenda while censoring conservatives.
I see two sides to this issue. On one hand, the First Amendment applies to conservatives and therefore, their voices should not be censored. On the other hand, companies can dictate what kind of content is allowed on their platform.
It is the digital version of “no shirt, no shoes, no service.”
Nevertheless, despite the fierce rhetoric against Big Tech, Twitter, and specifically TWTR stock, should thrive under Trump. Normally, celebrities just use the social media platform to rant inanely about whatever bugs Hollywood.
But this is the first administration where we’re getting constant updates on life in the White House. Whatever your political ideologies may be, it’s truly fascinating stuff. Not only that, I’m sure Twitter would miss Trump if he were defeated in 2020. Thus, I like TWTR as one of the counterintuitive election stocks to buy.
Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL)
Among the biggest targets of Trump is internet giant Alphabet.
Last year, Trump issued a remarkably scathing tweet, blasting Alphabet’s Google for election tampering and alleged ties to China’s military. Obviously, this was before the pandemic. I can’t imagine this crisis helping the situation for GOOGL stock, at least from the president’s perspective.
Nevertheless, you shouldn’t be shy about considering Alphabet as one of your election stocks to buy. A few years back, Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ) bought Yahoo’s core internet business. While Yahoo is largely irrelevant as a search engine compared to Google, it had one edge: It aggregated global news and allowed people to comment on it.
Boy, if you wanted to read absolutely disgusting comments, Yahoo was the place. But the company made the decision to temporarily close commenting on articles it publishes and redistributes.
That leaves Alphabet’s YouTube as the place to go to for unhinged — and often outright hateful — comments. Yes, it’s another cynical argument, this time for GOOG stock. However, it’s where we are as a society right now.
Election Stocks: General Motors (GM)
As you might know from my previous writings, I’m not a big fan of American cars. Apparently, neither is Trump.
When he used to drive himself back in his Apprentice days, he loved showing off his Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren. What can I say? “The Donald” has excellent taste.
But as president of the United States, he’s obligated to show love to Detroit. This brings our discussion of presidential election stocks to General Motors. If Trump wins, you gotta love GM stock if only for the nationalism angle. Honestly, his administration can’t fail General Motors or rival Ford (NYSE:F) for that matter.
Making the case stronger — albeit more chaotic — for General Motors is the fact that Trump has previously treated the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor as a recent event. Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Trump promoting anti-Japanese import policies that bolster American auto production.
If I may be blunt, I’m not sure if such policies would help lift the quality of American cars. However, perception is king in American politics. So, keep a close eye on GM stock as we head into November.
The GEO Group (GEO)
If you thought that writing about presidential election stocks that would perform well under a second Trump administration was awkward, try discussing The GEO Group, especially in the present social climate.
Honestly, I’m extremely uncomfortable bringing up GEO stock because of what it represents — for-profit private prisons.
Oh, technically, GEO is a real-estate investment trust with a specialty in “evidence-based rehabilitation.” What this really means is that GEO stock is a platform for, shall we say, sophisticated private investors to exploit members of at-risk communities.
Yes, they may be prisoners serving their time for their indiscretions against society. It is just that most people don’t feel comfortable monetizing this service.
Despite the incredible ugliness associated with GEO, I think it provides an important barometer for this political race. As you know, Trump bills himself as the “law and order” candidate. Thus, if Wall Street believes that he’ll win, GEO stock should swing higher.
Election Stocks: Nornickel (NILSY)
As I’ve mentioned before, I believe in the precious metals, especially at this juncture. With the terrible cost of the pandemic, the only way to pay for this is to implement dovish monetary policies.
Naturally, this would be inflationary for the dollar, driving up most commodity prices. And that bodes well for mining firms like Nornickel.
But the other factor that supports NILSY stock is that it’s Russian. Prior to the Trump administration, the U.S. had two rivals or adversaries: China and Russia. Apparently, Republicans like Russians now, but hate the Chinese. It’s not surprising. America has a long history of bitter jealousy against Asians.
Further, by going after China so harshly, a Trump White House will need allies. That ally is Russia, giving NILSY stock a surprising boost.
Sturm Ruger (RGR)
After peaking in August, Sturm Ruger has been on a downward slide.
Part of that could be the simple concept that RGR stock got ahead of itself. While the demand in gun sales have been strong this year because of the pandemic, some investors have reasoned that this one-off momentum can’t last.
Another explanation is that firearms-related companies typically don’t do well under Republican leadership.
Without the fear of gun control legislation, the incentive to purchase firearms just isn’t as strong as it would be under a liberal administration. Therefore, on paper, the case for Ruger as one of the election stocks to buy appears weak.
But I don’t believe these old rules apply anymore. In my opinion, the 2020 race is the ugliest campaign season I’ve witnessed — and I’ve seen how things turned out in 2016. This year has brought the dark underbelly of American politics to the forefront. With that, our social trust is low, sadly supporting the upside narrative of RGR stock.
Election Stocks: Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI)
Among the presidential election stocks on this list, Smith & Wesson Brands is one of the toughest nuts to crack. Therefore, I’m putting SWBI stock near the bottom.
It’s not that I don’t like SWBI stock. Since this crisis struck, I have been bullish on all things firearms. For publicly traded gun companies, the fundamental narrative is incredibly straightforward: A record number of Americans bought firearms for protection.
Frankly, I applaud them. Because if radical Democrats defund the police, individual citizens must rely on their own resources to protect themselves. But this is also why SWBI stock is a name to buy if Biden wins the White House.
However, it’s possible that Smith & Wesson still has a place in a second term for Trump. Primarily, it’s not a stretch to assume all hell will break loose if he pulls it off. Yes, he will bring law and order, but that may not be for a while.
Second, a victorious Trump is an emboldened one. With nothing to lose in a second term, he could help reverse restrictive federal gun laws. Perhaps, he could also pressure liberal states to loosen theirs.
Yeah, I know — guns are evil. But in this crazy time, law-abiding American citizens need anything that will help them survive. And I couldn’t think of two better friends than Smith & Wesson.
Sportsman’s Warehouse (SPWH)
While I appreciate the efforts of advocacy groups such as the Asian Pacific Policy & Planning Council in stopping racism, the unfortunate reality is that you cannot rehabilitate hate once it has gone beyond a certain threshold, such as the case of men lighting an elderly woman on fire.
Look, I’m glad that in the above case, the woman survived without serious injuries. But don’t you see why firearms retailers like Sportsman’s Warehouse have outperformed this year?
Granted, SPWH stock has dropped significantly in recent weeks, shedding some upside speculation. However, even under a Trump administration, I believe Sportsman’s remains one of the viable election stocks to buy.
That’s because purchasing firearms really is the great equalizer in American politics. Keep in mind that when the Black Panthers demonstrated in front of California’s state capitol in 1967 — not unlike what mostly white protesters did in Michigan this year — the National Rifle Association supported California signing gun control measures.
In other words, the establishment was perfectly fine with Americans owning guns, as long as they weren’t Black. To go even deeper, I believe “hidden” racism is alive and well today. But firearms keep everyone polite, preventing racism from being enabled violently.
Therefore, many Americans will be considering purchasing firearms because of this terribly unpredictable period. And if you want, SPWH stock isn’t a bad bet on this discount.
On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto held a long position in AT&T and Ford.
A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare.