ORCL: Too Many Cooks in Oracle’s Kitchen?

Advertisement

Larry Ellison’s recently announced departure as CEO of Oracle (ORCL) shocked investors and, paired with disappointing first-quarter earnings, sent ORCL stock lower.

Larry Ellison grabpress

But while Wall Street was surprised at Ellison leaving, it also might have been scratching its collective head at finding out that he would be handing the reins off to not one, but two executives.

Mark Hurd and Safra Catz will share the the top spot as co-CEOs of the enterprise software and computer hardware giant — not an unprecedented move, but certainly unexpected.

Susquehanna International Group analyst Derrick Wood told InvestorPlace that the tech veteran is vacating the CEO role in Larry Ellison fashion, which is to do what he wants, when he wants, and without tipping his hand ahead of time.

That’s great for Larry Ellison, who certainly is making his exit on his own terms … but how will this fare for ORCL stock holders now that Oracle essentially will be managed by committee?

Power Struggle

If you ask Ellison, not much has changed. The trio have been working together for years; the latter two shared the role of president ever since the former exec joined the company in 2010. And while Ellison will no longer serve as chief executive, he will remain in an executive capacity as chief technology officer and chairman of the board. Heck, he’ll even have a place on the company’s future conference calls.

Still, while perception isn’t everything, it’s something … and Ellison’s descent from the CEO role marks the end of an era at a traditional technology company that’s fighting to keep its relevance among younger, hipper industry peers like Workday (WDAY) and Salesforce.com (CRM).

Larry Ellison has an unrivaled history at Oracle, so while he clearly thinks highly of Hurd — evidenced by the fact that in 2010 he compared his successor’s unceremonious ouster at Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) to that of the late Steve Jobs from Apple (AAPL) in the mid-80s — his leadership style, if anything like his adventurist spirit, will be missed.

And to be clear, while CEOs inherently wear multiple hats, Hurd and Catz will be dividing their responsibilities, so in theory they won’t be stepping on one another’s toes. Hurd is a sales professional who is not afraid of the spotlight, while Catz, who has spent the past decade-and-a-half at Oracle, is more of a behind-the-scenes numbers and legal expert.

In reality, this might be Ellison — who will maintain hardware and engineering duties — clinging too tightly to keep things the same, even if that’s not a realistic goal.

Susquehanna’s Wood, who has a positive rating on the stock and a $47 price target, is split on the issue.

“There have been a fair share of scenarios we’ve seen where this co-CEO role hasn’t worked out,” he said. “But certainly there are numerous situations where it has.”

Wood pointed to the example of industry peer SAP (SAP), which only months ago moved from a dual to a single-CEO structure, but added that egos could possibly get in the way.

“With the title (of CEO) comes a sense of entitlement,” he said. “There is the risk of a power struggle.”

In the event of such a power struggle, my guess is that Hurd would prevail only because this isn’t his first Silicon Valley C-suite rodeo.

Head in the Clouds

The change atop Oracle Mountain adds more uncertainty to an already precarious situation.

For instance, over the past two years, revenue has grown from roughly $37.2 billion to $38.3 billion, representing a modest 3.2% increase. Meanwhile, Workday for fiscal 2015 is predicting sales growth in the 62% to 64% range at between $760 million and $770 million. And Salesforce.com recently lifted its fiscal 2015 revenue outlook to a range of $5.34 billion to $5.37 billion, representing an increase of 32% over the prior year.

Yes, Oracle is by far the most established company of the three, so slower growth is to be expected. But that doesn’t make its stock any more attractive.

If you’re looking for a reason to have a little confidence, though, Larry Ellison hasn’t dumped his ORCL stock — or at least, he hasn’t yet. With more than a billion Oracle shares worth a reported $45.8 billion, it’s hard to believe that Ellison will simply let that wealth vanish.

Maybe that’s why he’s keeping one hand on the wheel.

Conclusion

If Mike Wilson’s book The Difference Between God and Larry Ellison is any indication, the CEO shoes would’ve been tough to fill in any scenario. But this co-CEO role coupled with Ellison’s lingering presence seems more like an experiment than it does any lasting situation. And were it any other company, this kind of executive shuffle would be reason enough to consider selling part if not all of your stake.

But this isn’t any other company — it’s Oracle, which means this isn’t any other executive sticking around to protect his massive interest. It’s Larry Ellison, which is enough to inspire at least enough confidence to stick around and see what the company’s next steps will be.

ORCL certainly isn’t a screaming buy, but if you’re already holding … don’t change a thing.

As of this writing, Gerelyn Terzo did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2014/09/orcl-stock-larry-ellison/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC