Back on June 30th, yours truly warned that MannKind Corporation (MNKD) was a sell.

For those that have kept close tabs on MannKind stock and the company’s saga of getting its inhaled insulin Afrezza approved since the very beginning, you’ll immediately know why it seemed like an odd, almost enraging call at the time.

That was the date Afrezza won a decade-long battle with the Food and Drug Administration.

It was probably the biggest and best news MNKD had ever been able to tout, and investors were sure the 110% gain that MannKind stock had seen year-to-date (at the time) was only the beginning of glorious gains to come.

I disagreed, and was mercilessly critiqued and criticized for even suggesting the idea that MannKind stock could do anything but go up from there.

Well, while I hate to be the one to say I told you so, I told you so. As it turns out, MNKD shares peaked that very day and spent the next 14 weeks losing 58% of their value. So … I hope you were listening.

I don’t come here to gloat, though. Or at least, I don’t come here to only gloat. I’m revisiting MannKind today to let you know while I may have hated the stock in late June at a price of more than $11, I like MNKD here in late October at a price around $6.

MNKD Comes Full Circle

What has changed?

The easy answer is “price,” but honestly, that’s an incomplete answer. The reality is, Afrezza is a good — even if not great — product. And there’s a decent-sized market for it, with no direct competition on the horizon.

For the unfamiliar, Afrezza is an inhaled insulin appropriate for a certain segment of diabetes patients. It’s certainly a more compelling option than the needles that diabetics must currently use to inject insulin. While the estimates vary somewhat, experts believe Afrezza is capable of eventually generating revenue anywhere $3.2 billion and $3.65 billion per year.

MannKind won’t pocket all of that, mind you. It’s partnered with Sanofi SA (SNY) to market the inhaled insulin. Sanofi will pocket (or eat) 65% of Afrezza’s profits (or losses), while MannKind will only have a 35% share in the partnership. It’s not “fair” per se, but given Sanofi’s vast reach within the diabetes market, this partnership still is the best scenario for anyone who owns MannKind stock.

Just remember: Even with the most optimistic of outlooks, MannKind’s share of the annual revenue at stake will only reach about $1.3 billion. And it’s going to be a while before that level is hit.

The opportunity is real, however, and a forward-looking price/sales ratio of 1.8 isn’t an unreasonable price to pay. Plus, at the current price of $5.96 per share, the company’s market cap of $2.4 billion makes more sense relative to the potential market size for the inhaled insulin than the market cap of $4.5 billion in late June when the drug was newly approved.

But how do we know the MNKD downtrend has run its course?

The big clue is in the chart.

At the time, Oct. 13 didn’t seem like a particularly important day. When the big high-volume gain from Oct. 15 materialized, though, traders at least had to acknowledge that the 13th was starting to look like a pivot (as doji bars often are).

The clincher has come within the past four days, however. Over the course of the past four trading days, the bulls have gotten back on their proverbial horse, and have just made their first higher high in four months.

While there’s still apt to be plenty of up and down in the foreseeable future for MannKind stock, it appears we’ve transitioned from net bearish volatility to net bullish volatility.

The Last Word on MannKind Stock

While my thoughts from late June might have been the cornerstone of a contentious debate, I’ll repeat now what I tried to make clear then …. the bearish call was never about Afrezza. It was never even about MNKD, for that matter.

It was always about a hysteria that far exceeded anything that was sustainable anytime soon.

It was all about timing.

It’s not like it’s the first time we’ve seen this kind of thing happen, either, especially within the world of biotech. For other examples of how good news was initially disastrous for a stock, check this out.

Whatever the case, most all the noise that carried MNKD too high before June 30 then led to a nasty subsequent pullback looks like it’s exhausted itself. From here, the stock’s price is about Afrezza, and about MannKind Corporation itself.

That’s finally something to be optimistic about.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.