Housing Market Crash Alert: This KEY Number That Should Spook Investors

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  • The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released existing-home sales data for March.
  • Existing-home sales fell 2.4% in March, a notable reversal from February’s almost 15% jump.
  • While some view this as a pessimistic sign the housing recession is still underway, home sales remain elevated compared to the past several months.
housing market crash - Housing Market Crash Alert: This KEY Number That Should Spook Investors

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Fears of a housing market crash are swirling following the release of some pessimistic housing data. Indeed, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) published its March home-sales data, and it wasn’t pretty.

According to the NAR, existing-home sales fell 2.4% in March, showing monthly declines in almost every region in the U.S., aside from the Northeast. Every region posted annual existing sales losses.

While this isn’t the sunniest report on its own, when you consider the reversal from February’s undeniably strong existing-home sales, the story becomes much bleaker.

In fact, the NAR reported an almost 15% increase in home sales in February, the largest increase since July 2020. While some may attribute February’s home sales jump as a symptom of cooling home prices or easing mortgage rates, today’s news puts a damper on any prior narratives suggesting a housing resurgence.

Housing Market Crash Fears Swell as Exiting-Home Sales Lose Momentum

Although March home sales certainly reversed from February’s big jump, the big picture isn’t so simple. March home sales were actually higher than in the past several months, dating back to October 2022.

“Home sales are trying to recover and are highly sensitive to changes in mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Yet, at the same time, multiple offers on starter homes are quite common, implying more supply is needed to fully satisfy demand. It’s a unique housing market.”

Some believe existing-home sales data from the past few months show a sign of home buyer confidence starting to return. This makes sense. The Federal Reserve is projected to end its rate hikes sooner than later, and with mortgage rates already down from their peak, it’s no wonder some hopeful home buyers see now as the time to strike.

Limited inventory is also playing a significant role in home demand. A recent Realtor.com report showed that the number of available homes for sale fell once again in March, now down more than 50% since the pandemic started.

Fears of a housing recession have been brewing in the country for some time. While a fall in home sales will likely only reinforce those sentiments, it’s too early to hit the panic button just yet.

On the date of publication, Shrey Dua did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2023/04/housing-market-crash-alert-this-key-number-that-should-spook-investors/.

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