Pricey PepsiCo Rides Snacks to a Beat-and-Raise Quarter (PEP)

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PepsiCo (PEP) earnings served up a beat-and-raise report Thursday, helping PEP stock build on an already strong year of gains. Too bad shares look a bit too pricey for new money.

Pepsico (NYSE:PEP) pep stockPEP stock is up more than 13% for the year-to-date, helped by solid results like ones PepsiCo enjoyed in the most recent quarter.

Even better, PEP stock has diverged from the broader market ever since the market started trending down in mid-September. During the downtrend, PEP stock is up about three percentage points even as the S&P 500 has slipped by about the same. The bottom line is that PEP stock is now outperforming that benchmark by roughly 6 percentage points in 2014.

More results like PepsiCo churned out in the third quarter bode well for the bottom line. For the most recent quarter, PepsiCo was able to beat Wall Street estimates despite weak demand for both sugary and diet carbonated beverages in the developed world, as well as volatility in emerging markets.

PepsiCo earnings rose to $2.01 billion, or $1.32 per share, up from $1.92 billion, $1.23 per share, a year ago. That’s a healthy earnings beat. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters projected PepsiCo earnings to come in at $1.29 per share.

On the top line, revenue ticked up 1.8% to $17.2 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s projection of $17.1 billion.

The key was the snack business at PepsiCo, where Frito-Lay North America sales rose 3% and Latin America foods sales gained 6%. That helped offset a decline in North American carbonated soft drink volume of 1.5%. Meanwhile, all beverage sales in the Americas remained flat at $5.38 billion. In Europe, beverage sales fell 1% to $3.76 billion.

As a result, PepsiCo lifted its earnings outlook. The company now expects core per-share earnings growth of 9%, up from a prior target of 8% growth.

PepsiCo Too Expensive to Buy

As admirable a job PepsiCo has done managing its businesses in the tough macro environment, this is not a stock worth 19 times forward earnings. PepsiCo has a long-term growth rate of only 7%. PEP stock is significantly more expensive than the broader market even though it has a substantially lower growth trajectory.

PEP stock also trades at large premiums to its own five-year average price-to-earnings multiples (P/E), on both a forward and trailing basis. Over the last five years, PEP stock has fetched a forward P/E of 16, according to Thomson Reuters Stock Reports. On a trailing basis, PEP goes for 22 these days vs. a long-term average of 18.

Part of the premium valuation for PEP stock stems from activist investor Nelson Peltz’s attempts to split the drinks business from the snacks business. But even if he were to succeed, it’s not clear investors would want holdings in both the snacks business and the beverage business. After all, between consumers giving up fizzy drinks and Coca-Cola (KO) nibbling at market share, the PepsiCo beverage business look like a dud for now.

If Peltz gets his way, the snacks part of PepsiCo might be worth a look. But as for now, uncertainty surrounding its corporate structure, weak market conditions and an overpriced valuation make PEP stock a pass.

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As of this writing, Dan Burrows did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2014/10/pepsico-pep-stock-pepsi/.

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