Why Buying Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc (VRX) Stock Isn’t Nuts

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With the stock on the verge of new multi-year lows and the headlines looking (mostly) grim, it’s tough to get excited about Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc (NYSE:VRX) here. Indeed, the biggest and best bullish argument for hanging on to VRX stock — the fact that hedge fund manager Bill Ackman was still holding on — was recently wiped away; the activist investor recently reported he finally sold all 27 million shares of VRX stock he owned.

Why Buying Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc (VRX) Stock Isn't Nuts

And yet, when you look past all the recent scandals and gaffes (and take into account the stock is now down a little more than 95% of its value since its August 2015 peak), there’s actually a decent bullish case for investors willing to gamble a little bit.

VRX Stock: Now? You’re Selling Out Now?

Just so there’s no misunderstanding, let me be crystal clear right up front that stepping into a position in Valeant stock is a big risk, but not because the company is worthless. Rather, the rhetoric that pushes VRX stock back and forth is still flowing rather freely.

What has changed, somewhat in part to a new CEO, is simply that the cloud of dust obscuring Valeant Pharmaceuticals is now fading. That is to say, you can actually see what you’re buying. And what one can see is a company that’s got plenty of debt, but also has a respectable portfolio.

One of those still-impressive pieces of the revenue pie is its eyecare division, Bausch & Lomb, which is paired with the organization’s international division. The company plausibly expects sales from Bausch & Lomb to grow between 4% and 6% per year through 2020. That’s fairly solid. And, if its new glaucoma treatment latanoprostene bunod wins the FDA’s blessing in August, the company could turn the heat up on those numbers.

At the same time, its more conventional drug business is still up and running. Case in point: Opioid-induced constipation relief Relistor continues to see sales growth, and with the company expanding its sales force, all of its established lines — not just Relistor — have a legitimate shot at moving forward.

Point being, while the company has got problems to be sure, it still has marketable assets. It’s just a matter of optimizing the math.

That’s a tall order, mind you. The company continues to swim in debt, and it remains the proverbial poster child of all the greedy things that are wrong with the biopharma business. Already down 95% from its mid-2014 peak though, with little left to lose as this point, the decision from Ackman to dump his VRX stock looks ill-timed. At this point, he could at least afford to hold onto it on the off-chance a prayer is answered.

That’s not to say the next several months, or even years, won’t be tough ones for Valeant stock.

The aforementioned debt? The total of $29.8 billion on the books is going to be a bit lower in subsequent quarters. VRX plans to use at least a big piece of the $2.1 billion it will garner via the sale of Dendreon and some of its skin-care brands to pay that debt down. CEO Joseph Papa said at that same time Valeant Pharmaceuticals intends to pay down $5 billion worth of its debt within the next year and a half.

It’s an admirable start, though it won’t be enough to work the company back into the black. At the same time, the company is working down its debt load, it’s also undermining its capacity to create much-needed revenue.

Meanwhile, although its portfolio has some winners, it’s not bulletproof. Its IBS therapy Xifaxan, for example, could face generic competition sooner than anyone was counting on. Although it’s still got years of patent protection before it has to worry about it, biopharma stocks like VRX stock can trade years in advance based on the market’s perception of what’s to come.

Here’s the thing … all of this bad news is already priced into Valeant stock, and then some. The company’s $3.9 billion market cap is a pittance to VRX’s potential if its properties are in the right hands. If nothing else, the break-up value of Valeant Pharmaceuticals could arguably pay off the company’s debt and still leave more than $3.9 billion in the bank.

That’s what makes Ackman’s exit (or at least his timing) so surprising.

Bottom Line for VRX Stock

To be clear again, taking on a position in VRX stock here isn’t for the faint of heart. Papas has a massive task ahead of him, and there’s no assurance he’ll be able to get the job done. But, the recent refinancing of the company’s stifling debt is a good sign he knows what has to be done. That’s half the battle.

Keep it on a short leash, but if you were thinking Valeant stock is a high-reward rebound possibility, you’re not crazy. ValueAct Capital Management was thinking the same way when it purchased 500,000 shares of VRX stock last week, explaining, “the securities were undervalued and represented an attractive investment opportunity.”

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/03/valeant-pharmaceuticals-intl-inc-vrx-stock-isnt-nuts/.

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