Coffee Stocks Perking Up? Don’t Bet the Beans On It

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Coffee stocksCoffee always has been a great investment — it’s an addictive product with global consumption. But are the days of multi-baggers in coffee stocks over? Yes. Overall, coffee stocks are flying way too high on a caffeine buzz right now. Does that mean you should sell them? Yes. All of them? The answer depends on which of the four big public players you hold. Here’s a look at how to play these four fresh-roasting stocks:

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ:GMCR) has been the multi-bagger poster child for the sector. The stock is up 27-fold in the past five years. The company has been growing earnings like gangbusters, but about a year ago the SEC started an informal inquiry into the company. On Monday, hedge fund manager David Einhorn made a negative presentation in New York in which he attacked Green Mountain”s poor transparency and shifting financial disclosures, and claimed that capital spending is growing much faster than the business.

Investors ignore Einhorn at their own peril. He, along with hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, called the 2008 housing crisis and made a fortune shorting companies like Lehman Brothers. Einhorn is right about free cash flow. GMCR’s has been flat over the past nine months, negative over the trailing 12 months, and negative all the way back to at least 2008. That’s not necessarily unusual for a high-growth stock, but with GMCR trading at 51 times this year’s earnings, buying in at this level seems like a mistake. Shorting Green Mountain would make more sense, but with a momentum stock, you better have a stop-loss in place. If you hold GMCR, I’d sell.

Starbucks

I’m more optimistic about Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX). After stumbling the past few years because of a combination of vast overexpansion and the tough economy, Howard Schultz returned to the CEO seat. SBUX has its second wind and has begun growing earnings again — 20% is expected this year and next, and 16% over the next five years, annualized. Starbucks remains the go-to choice in much of the country and has earned acceptance globally. I think the key to the company’s long-term success is continued innovation.

In the meantime, with $1.5 billion of net cash, and $929 million in trailing 12-month free cash flow (TTMFCF), Starbucks sits on solid ground financially. The only problem right now is its price. At $41, SBUX is trading at 27 times earnings. If you hold Starbucks, I might take some profits and look to re-enter at lower prices. I wouldn’t pay more than $30 at this point. I wouldn’t short SBUX since it isn’t outrageously overvalued.

Peet’s Coffee & Tea

Peet’s Coffee & Tea (NASDAQ:PEET) is experiencing the same frothiness in its stock price. As a growing small-cap company, that might be acceptable if growth were stronger than it is. On one hand, being small means you have plenty of market share to grab (Starbucks’ market cap is 40 times larger). On the other hand, instead of dealing with profits of $945 million like Starbucks, Peet’s Coffee & Tea has net income of $17 million. TTMFCF is only $12 million. Peet’s has $28 million in cash and no debt.

Peet’s is a perfectly fine company with a great product. Unfortunately, earnings are growing at 12% this year, 20% next year and 19% annualized over five years — and PEET stock trades at 40 times earnings! Once again, a short-selling candidate for those who can stomach it, a sell to those who hold, but look for re-entry into this fine business below $25.

Caribou Coffee

You’ll have to look hard to find Caribou Coffee (NASDAQ:CBOU) stores, as there’s only 400 or so, but you’ll be pleased you did. Caribou also serves a terrific product. CBOU trades at $13, but backing out its $32 million in cash (no debt!), its effective price is $11.40 and trades at 30 times this year’s estimates, and 22 times next year’s.

With earnings flat to down this year, up 20% next year and 22% projected over five years, Caribou probably is the least expensive brewer. It’s not a short, and not a sell — but not a buy, either. I’d hold CBOU if you’ve got it. Buying on weakness might make some sense if you think Caribou can penetrate the market further.

As of this writing, Lawrence Meyers did not have a position in any of the aforementioned stocks.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/10/sell-your-coffee-stocks-gmcr-sbux-peet-cbou/.

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