After Disappointing Q2 Numbers, Mylan Stock Isn’t Terribly Exciting

Advertisement

MYL stock - After Disappointing Q2 Numbers, Mylan Stock Isn’t Terribly Exciting

Source: Shutterstock

Things just haven’t been the same for Mylan (NASDAQ:MYL) recently.

The generic pharmaceutical giant recent reported ugly second-quarter numbers that missed top- and bottom-line expectations. The full-year revenue and profit guides also got chopped. But, this is just more of the same for MYL stock, which has been plagued by price gouging and intensified competition in the U.S. pharmaceutical market for several years now.

MYL stock peaked in peak May 2015 above $70. Since, the stock has steadily dropped. MYL stock now sits below $40, a 40%-plus drop in just over 3 years. For what its worth, the S&P 500 has rallied nearly 40% during that stretch.

Unfortunately, I don’t see this slide ending any time soon. Dour Q2 numbers imply that while the worst of Mylan’s decline may be in the rear-view mirror, the outlook for growth going forward remains bleak.

As such, I think MYL stock isn’t a compelling long or short here. Put simply, if you don’t own it, there is no reason to buy it now.

Here’s a deeper look.

Mylan’s Q2 Numbers Were More of the Same Disappointment

Mylan’s Q2 numbers were more of the same stuff that has caused MYL stock to drop 40% in the past three-plus years.

Namely, results everywhere besides North America are “OK”, while results in North America are awful and not getting better. In the quarter, North America revenues dropped 22%, slightly worse than last quarter’s 19% decline and much worse than last year’s 12% decline. The culprit of abysmal North America operating results is broad weakness across the whole generics pharmaceutical market in the U.S., which can trace its origins to increased competitive and regulatory pressures eroding pricing power. In Mylan’s case, the big product getting hit by these headwinds is the EpiPen.

Because North America is Mylan’s biggest market, struggles there are causing negative revenue growth across the whole company. Revenues were down 5% in the quarter. Margins are falling, too, so profit growth is also getting whacked. These concerns aren’t expected to ease much. Revenue growth is expected to be flat this year, while profit growth is expected to be sub-5%.

In the big picture, Mylan’s second quarter numbers affirmed that this is still a company afflicted by adverse pricing conditions in the U.S. pharmaceutical market. Thus, this is still a company with negative revenue growth, compressing margins, and a lack of long-term earnings growth visibility.

No Sign of a Turnaround in Mylan Stock

Judging by Q2 numbers, things are only getting worse at Mylan. Namely, the 20%-plus decline in North America revenues and the steep cut to the full-year guide imply that conditions in the North America pharma market aren’t improving just yet.

Until those conditions improve, and Mylan’s North America numbers get better, MYL stock won’t go anywhere.

I understand that this stock is cheap. MYL stock trades between 7x and 8x forward earnings. But, this stock is always cheap. For the past several years, MYL stock has traded around 7x to 9x earnings. Yet, during the past several years, MYL stock has done nothing but grind lower despite that cheap valuation.

From this perspective, “cheap” really isn’t a catalyst which will push MYL stock higher here and now.

Meanwhile, there isn’t a dividend to keep investors happy while management tries to right the ship, and the technicals aren’t very good, as the 50-day just crossed below the 200-day in a bearish manner.

Overall, MYL stock looks like dead money here. Will it fall much further? Probably not. If earnings stabilize, then it is tough to see this stock falling below $35. But, will it go higher? Probably not. So long as the North America market remains a mess, earnings won’t get that much better. Without solid earnings growth, then sentiment, valuation, and stock price will all remain depressed.

Bottom Line on MYL Stock

Q2 numbers affirm that this company’s core North America growth narrative remains a mess. As such, MYL stock will likely continue to struggle for gains into the foreseeable future.

As of this writing, Luke Lango did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/08/after-disappointing-q2-numbers-mylan-stock-isnt-terribly-exciting/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC