Industrial conglomerate General Electric (NYSE:GE) made headlines again this week — and not in a good way. GE stock dropped below $12 for the first time since July 2009. To put that in perspective, GE stock was a $30-plus stock at the beginning of last year.

That is a big fall from the mountaintop for GE stock, but trying to buy the dip in this name and find bottom has been like catching a falling knife. GE stock momentary stopped the bleeding when it dropped below $20. There was some sideways trading followed by a mini-bounce. Then, the sell-off continued.

Again, the bleeding momentarily stopped when GE stock dropped below $15. There was some sideways trading followed by a mini-bounce. But, yet again, the sell-off continued after that bounce.

Alas, here we are. GE stock is at its lowest levels in a decade.

But this big drop to $12 could be different than the drops to $20 and $15. At $12, GE stock feels fundamentally supported — assuming the company’s core Power, Aviation and Healthcare businesses stabilize earnings power in the 75-cent-to-$1-per-share range. That isn’t that aggressive of an assumption to make. Thus, it does seem like $12 is a fundamentally supported floor.

Time to buy the dip? I’m not so sure. Longer term, GE stock should trend higher. But, here and now, this is likely a stock stuck in neutral until further clarity is added surrounding the company’s go-forward growth prospects.

The $12 Level Could Be a Bottom

Chart lovers will say that GE stock could fall all the way to ~$7, marking a full retreat to 2008-09 recession lows. But those lows were put in during a time when the global economy was on the brink of collapsing.

Today, the situation is much different. Global economic growth is quite healthy, with the U.S. leading the way at 4%-plus GDP growth last quarter. Trade tensions and the Turkey currency crisis are global risk factors, but, in the big picture, those risks factors are relatively small. Overall, the economic picture today is markedly better than it was a decade ago.

Thus, GE stock dropping to 2008-09 recession lows could happen… but it is unlikely.

Instead, I think that $12 is a fundamentally supported floor for GE stock. Management has maintained that they are slimming operations to focus on Power, Aviation, and Healthcare. Between those three businesses, combined revenues last year was around $80 billion, while segments profits were around $13 billion. The Power business is in decline, but the Aviation and Healthcare businesses are both rising. Assuming year-to-date growth trends persist, then GE should be able to do about $13 billion in segment profits again this year between those three businesses.

Taking out $5 billion for net other expenses and assuming a 20% tax rate, you are looking at $6.4 billion in potential profits this year between Power, Aviation and Healthcare. This equates to about 75 cents in earnings per share. A historically average industrials multiple of 16 times forward earnings on that implies a fair value for GE stock of about $12.

From this perspective, I think a $12 price tag for GE stock is fundamentally supported by the Power, Aviation, and Healthcare businesses alone.

Don’t Expect a Big Rally Soon

Although $12 does feel like a fundamental bottom, investors shouldn’t expect a big turnaround in GE stock to materialize rapidly. Instead, just as it has taken GE stock a while to fall, it will take the stock a while to rebound, too.

Put simply, GE stock won’t rebound with much ferocity so long as there is a significant lack of clarity regarding what the business will look like in three to five years. Right now, management is busy cutting fat and divesting businesses that aren’t deemed core to the company. All this trimming creates a ton of near-term noise, and noise lends itself to uncertainty.

During times of uncertainty, stocks rarely go higher.

But this era of uncertainty won’t last forever. Eventually, all the fat trimming will be behind the company, and GE will hopefully move forward with an exclusive focus on Power, Aviation, and Healthcare. At that point in time, you could see GE stock rebound begin. I think $1.20 or more in earnings per share is possible over the next three to five years, implying a long-term price target of nearly $20 (assuming a 16 multiple).

Overall, while I’m bullish on GE stock nearly doubling from here over the next three to five years, I also don’t think that this big rebound will start until there is more certainty surrounding the growth narrative.

Bottom Line on GE Stock

Although $12 does feel like a fundamentally supported bottom, there also isn’t any catalyst on the horizon which should spark a rebound in GE stock. Consequently, I think the best thing to do here is sit and wait until more clarity is injected into the bull thesis.

As of this writing, Luke Lango did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.