Google Stock Is a Great Long-Term Investment, but Wait to Buy

Advertisement

GOOG stock - Google Stock Is a Great Long-Term Investment, but Wait to Buy

Source: Shutterstock

If tech stocks were a house, that house is burning right now.

Across the board, once-loved tech stocks are dropping like flies. Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) are all in correction territory (10% or more off recent highs). Meanwhile, mid-cap-high-flyers like Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), Square (NYSE:SQ), Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD), Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU), Chegg (NYSE:CHGG) and iRobot (NASDAQ:IRBT) are all in bear market territory (20% or more off recent highs).

Long-term, recent weakness in tech is a buying opportunity. This is especially true for a few deeply undervalued tech stocks, like GOOG stock.

Near-term, though, the story is very different. The broader markets are a mess right now, with tech leading the decline. Everyone is concerned about a trade war breaking out and/or quantitative tightening killing economic growth globally. We are also, presumably, in the late-stages of a decade-long economic expansion, are due for a correction and are feeling the pressure of rising rates on equity valuations.

Overall, it is simply a bad market right now. In bad markets, stock-picking is tough. Almost everything goes down, with exception of defensive stocks with low multiples and big yields. GOOG stock isn’t a defensive stock. It doesn’t have a super low multiple, and there is no yield. Thus, buying the dip in GOOG stock or other tech stocks is tough to do at the current moment. It is very possible that we have further weakness ahead.

In other words, GOOG stock is undervalued and a great long-term investment. But, before buying this dip, investors should wait for the smoke to clear.

Google Is a Great Long-Term Investment

As it approaches $1,000, GOOG stock looks like a great investment opportunity at a great price.

This is a mega-growth stock with multiple secular growth businesses. On one end, you have the Google search engine, which is the backbone of the entire internet everywhere except China. That business makes money by being the dominant player in the digital advertising space. The digital ad market is projected to keep growing at a healthy pace over the next several years. Thus, Google’s search engine projects to remain a double-digit grower.

Elsewhere, Google owns YouTube, which is the second largest social media app in the world behind Facebook. And, unlike Facebook, most signs indicate that YouTube’s popularity is only growing as entertainment moves from linear to internet. YouTube makes money through ads, too. There is still a bunch of TV ad money that needs to follow engagement and make the transition from linear channels to internet channels. As this sizable transition plays out over the next several years, YouTube’s ad revenues will grow by leaps and bounds.

Beyond advertising, Google has developed a hyper-growth cloud business that is among the Big 3 in the cloud market. Data and workloads continue to migrate to the cloud at a rapid rate and this is a global transition that is still in the early innings. As such, Google Cloud’s revenues and profits should continue to grow healthily over the next several years.

IoT and AI are Google’s two big businesses which have yet to make a splash, but could one day be big revenue drivers. Google is just starting its plunge into IoT and if this company can continue to grow market share in the smart device market, then IoT could one day be a sizable revenue driver for Google. Moreover, Waymo is Google’s self-driving unit which has yet to have a financial impact. But, it is only a matter of time before this business yields billions of dollars in revenue through automated ride-hailing.

Overall, Google is powered by multiple secular growth catalysts. Meanwhile, GOOG stock trades at just 23 times forward earnings. To put that in perspective, Nike (NYSE:NKE) trades at 29X forward earnings. Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), and Walmart (NYSE:WMT) all trade around 20X to 23X forward earnings.

Google grew revenues by 26% last quarter. All those other companies? Below 12%. In other words, GOOG stock is being awarded the same valuation as companies growing at half the pace it is. That makes no sense and, hence, GOOG stock looks like a compelling buy at $1,000.

Too Much Smoke in the Air Right Now

The outright bull thesis on GOOG stock, however, ignores the macro equity backdrop.

The macro equity backdrop right now is that stocks are burning down. There’s a lot of smoke in the air when it comes to valuations, rising rates, trade tensions, economic expansion, earnings, so on and so forth. Because of all this smoke, it is tough to see what GOOG stock will do tomorrow, or the next the day, or in a week.

In other words, market turbulence clouds the near-term bull thesis on GOOG stock. Because of this, investors should wait to buy the dip until this smoke clears. But, once that smoke clears, this will be a golden opportunity. In a long-term window, GOOG stock anywhere in the $1,000 to $1,100 range is a bargain.

Bottom Line on GOOG Stock

Without considering the macro equity backdrop, GOOG stock looks like a steal as it approaches $1,000. But, because the macro equity backdrop is so ugly right now, investors would be wise to wait to buy the dip in GOOG stock until the smoke clears.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long FB, AMZN, GOOG, SHOP, SQ, TTD, ROKU, CHGG, IRBT, MCD, and WMT. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/10/google-stock-great-long-term-investment-but-wait-buy/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC