Don’t Overthink This Selloff in Apple Stock

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Apple stock - Don’t Overthink This Selloff in Apple Stock

Source: Apple

The selloff in equity markets reversed course for a few days thanks to a flurry of strong earnings reports towards the end of October and into the beginning of November, coupled with a strong October jobs report and positive developments on trade relations between the U.S. and China. But, that brief recovery in stocks was short-circuited by a mixed earnings report from the world’s biggest publicly traded company: Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).

On Thursday evening, Apple reported mixed fourth-quarter numbers that beat on top and bottom line estimates but pointed to slowing growth and weakness ahead. Investors didn’t respond well to the report. Apple stock dropped 7% to levels not seen since early August.

But, Apple’s fourth-quarter report wasn’t all bad. Like most earnings reports, there was some good and some bad. The market is understandably focusing on the bad right now. Ultimately, though, investors shouldn’t overthink this selloff.

Broadly speaking, you have a really strong company still growing at a robust rate, with a stock that is trading at an exceptionally reasonable valuation. The stock hasn’t really been hammered recently while its FANG peers have dropped into bear market territory. Thus, weakness on a mixed Q4 report is reasonable. But, because the fundamentals remain strong and the valuation remains reasonable, this weakness will not last.

Instead, you’ll get some consolidation around the $200 level, and then the rally will resume.

The Good

There was a lot of good about Apple’s Q4 report. The company beat both top and bottom line expectations, driven by healthier than expected revenue growth trends and better than expected expense control. iPhone average selling prices rose by a whole bunch and topped expectations, implying strong demand for Apple’s new slate of $1,000-plus iPhones. Huge ASP growth drove iPhone revenues to a record high for the September quarter.

Meanwhile, Mac sales were strong across the board. ASPs were healthy and largely in-line with expectations. Unit shipments blew past expectations. Total revenue did, too.

The Services business, although it missed expectations by a hair, still grew at a robust 27% rate. This is consistent with the big but gradually slowing growth rates this business has reported over the past several years. Thus, in the big picture, still-robust 27% growth in Services is a material positive.

The Other Products segment reported revenue growth of 31%, which is the same as last quarter, implying that demand for Apple’s new products like Apple Watch continues to remain red hot.

On the geography side, Apple touted strength in its China business. Many bears expected the China business to be weak. It did grow at a slower rate this quarter (16%) than last quarter (19%). But, at the beginning of this fiscal year and in the year-ago quarter, the China business was barely growing above 10%. Thus, in that context, 16% China growth is quite healthy.

The Bad

There was also a fair amount of bad in Apple’s Q4 report. IPhone shipments yet again missed estimates. This is becoming the new norm. Apple misses iPhone shipment expectations but tops ASP expectations and overall drives record revenues. This seems like a fine combination. But, iPhone unit growth is flat year-over-year, implying global smartphone market saturation. Eventually, ASPs will max out, too, so the iPhone business is increasingly looking like a mature business with limited growth potential.

The iPad business essentially missed expectations across the board. That isn’t a big deal. But, it does show that Apple’s hardware business continues to be lumpy.

Meanwhile, the holiday quarter guide was weaker on both the revenue and margin front. Management blames the weak guide on emerging market weakness and FX headwinds. The FX headwinds are manageable. Emerging market weakness is not. The India business was flat in the quarter. That should be a huge growth business, given rapid urbanization and digitization trends in that economy. If this emerging market weakness persists, then Apple could lose some of its biggest growth drivers.

Also, the company said that starting in the December quarter, they will no longer be providing unit sales data for the iPhone, iPad and Mac. This is pretty shocking. Analysts and investors have long used unit shipment data from those three products, especially the iPhone, to judge the underlying health of the company. Removing this financial health gauge from the market is a negative shock to investors.

Bottom Line on AAPL Stock

Overall, Apple’s fourth-quarter report had some good and some bad. Ultimately, though, this story is all about favorable pricing trends, new hardware growth, Services growth, international expansion and stabilizing trends in the mature hardware business.

Apple checked off all those boxes in the quarter. ASPs rose by a bunch everywhere. New hardware products reported robust growth. The Services business stayed on its 20%-plus growth trajectory. China is still growing at a healthy rate. And the iPhone business is stable in terms of units.

Meanwhile, Apple stock now trades at just 15X forward earnings. That is fairly normal for this stock. As such, Apple stock is now a case of strong fundamentals converging on a reasonable valuation, and that makes this stock attractive at current levels.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long AAPL.  


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/11/dont-overthink-this-selloff-in-apple-stock/.

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