When SoFi (NASDAQ:SOFI) updated its annual guidance to the downside, investors scrambled to dump shares. SOFI stock tested new lows weeks after the warning. If financial institutions face a sharp slowdown in recessionary risks, why should SoFi, a new player in the fintech space, buck the trend? Investors are skeptical about the reasons for the company’s latest guidance cut. They do not believe the latest extension of the Federal student loan payment moratorium is the only reason for the lower revenue guidance.
SoFi said that it expects adjusted net revenue of $1.47 billion, down from its previous guidance of $1.57 billion. It guided for an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $100 million, down drastically from the $180 million guidance issued before. For the first quarter, SoFi expects adjusted net revenue of $280 million to $285 million. Unfortunately, it only expects a break-even to a $5 million adjusted EBITDA in Q1. At a market capitalization of several billion dollars, SoFi’s lack of profits is disturbing. Still, the company is yet another de-special purpose acquisition company (or de-SPAC) trading at new lows.
SoFi Chief Executive Officer Anthon Noto is vocal about canceling the loan moratorium. Fox Business picked up CEO’s blog post. CEO Noto said that the government should lead based on economic data and social principles. He accused the government of leading using politics. This has created confusion that the government may resolve by giving permanent relief. For example, it should forgive debtors for their $10,000 in student loans. This bold request would benefit SoFi’s business. The company assumes the government will extend the debt moratorium throughout 2022.
At current levels, fintech investors might decide that shares are low enough to discount any additional risks. The company offers an end-to-end service offering. After it acquires new customers, it has a chance to market those products. Every sale leads to an expansion in operating margins. Admittedly, SoFi will not add enough customers to offset losses from the moratorium extension. It only needs to keep attracting new customers at historical rates. In doing so, SoFi will report profits sooner than markets expect. Speculators cannot time a positive shift in sentiment.
So, for SOFI stock, hold a small position at low prices instead.
On the date of publication, Chris Lau did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
