Dollar General Puts Family Dollar’s Fate in Investors’ Hands

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Family Dollar (FDO), a discount neighborhood retailer approaching a critical crossroads in its company history, might not be able to choose which its own path after all.

Family DollarWhatever its future, it seems that FDO stock will be in the hands of another company by the end of the year.

Family Dollar management agreed back in July to accept Dollar Tree’s (DLTR) buyout offer of $8.5 billion, or $74.50 per share of FDO stock. Dollar General (DG) has tried several times to swoop in with higher, unsolicited offers, but to no avail.

Now, Dollar General is showing its willingness to play hardball.

Dollar General just announced a new bid, bypassing the FDO board and taking its $80 per share offer (which expires Oct. 8) directly to FDO shareholders in a hostile takeover.

One might wonder: Why wouldn’t Family Dollar’s management simply accept the significantly higher offer from Dollar General in the first place? Why make things “hostile”?

Where’s the love?

Well, love (if you’re looking for it) isn’t often found in Wall Street takeover battles.

For one, money actually isn’t everything here. Family Dollar previously had argued that Dollar General’s bids for FDO stock were unlikely to gain regulatory approval. That sounded like a somewhat reasonable concern, given that DG is already the top neighborhood discount retailer in the country, and a Family Dollar takeover would only serve to increase its girth. Dollar General argues that increasing competition from Walmart (WMT) make that claim untrue.

Family Dollar also has other motives for wanting to take the lower DLTR offer.

Firstly, Dollar Tree attracts a different type of consumer than Family Dollar, with almost every item in their stores selling for $1 a pop. Moreover, given the lack of redundancy between the two companies, a DLTR takeover of FDO would likely see fewer jobs lost. Alternatively, a hostile Dollar General bid is expected to result in many more lost jobs — including, potentially, CEO Howard R. Levine — and alienating Family Dollar’s working-class customer base.

At the end of the day, though, whether Family Dollar takes the new $80 per share offer is now out of management’s hands. The proposition will go straight to investors, who are much more likely to choose the higher DG offer, which offers the short-term gains that DLTR’s bid cannot.

And unless Dollar Tree jumps back in the bidding war, Family Dollar likely will find itself under Dollar General’s management.

As of this writing, John Divine did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2014/09/fdo-stock-family-dollar-general-hostile-bid/.

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