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Much like its high-growth peers in the FANG group, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock has cooled off some recently after a scorching-hot run earlier this year. NFLX stock is off its 52-week highs of $166.87, but remains up 27% year-to-date.

NFLX Stock: Buy Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Stock and Subscribe to Gains

With second-quarter earnings due on July 17, investors are starting to ask themselves: is NFLX stock a buy here?

I think so. Here’s why.

Analysts Debate Netflix Ahead of Q2 Earnings

Analysts have started to chime in on NFLX stock ahead of its Q2 report, and they don’t all agree.

UBS thinks Wall Street is underestimating Netflix’s user growth potential over the next several quarters. While the Street believes poor Q3 sub growth will spill into poor Q4 sub growth, UBS thinks that a strong Q4 content slate will re-invigorate sub growth in both Q3 and Q4. Overall, UBS sees upside to subscription addition estimates for 2017.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley notes that there is a positive correlation between how much content Netflix offers in a region and how many viewers Netflix has in that region. Morgan Stanley argues, then, that as newer markets get more and more content, subscription growth in those newer markets will accelerate. Overall, Morgan Stanley maintained its “overweight” rating and upped its price target to $185 (implying roughly 17% upside).

On the flip side of the equation, Wedbush Securities reiterated its bearish stance on NFLX stock ahead of the Q2 report. Although the firm pointed to upside in Q2 net add numbers driven by a strong content slate, Wedbush also maintained its $73 price target on NFLX stock, implying the stock could get cut in half.

The rationale behind the extremely bearish call? A lack of cash flows to support the currently high valuation. Wedbush sees risks to the international and original content growth stories. Considering the huge up-front investments Netflix is making in those areas, a lack of return would be devastating to the company’s cash flows.

Another bit of bearish news came from a Reuters/Ipsos poll. The poll found that some 21% of streaming viewers ages 18 to 24 said they had used someone else’s log-in credentials on a digital video service such as Netflix. About 12% of adults reported doing the same thing. Password sharing has always been a problem for Netflix, but it has been muted behind the roaring growth story. As soon as user growth cools, investors will likely start worrying about password sharing.

All in all, there has been a lot of buzz around NFLX stock recently. Some of it has been good (upside to Q2 net add numbers, accelerated growth in new markets). Some of it has been bad (original show cancellations, password sharing on the rise).

But what does it all mean for NFLX stock before the Q2 report?

Which Analyst Is Right About NFLX Stock?

I’ve been bullish on NFLX stock for some time, and I am going to stick with that bullish stance heading into the Q2 report.

My reasoning? Netflix produced some really good content in the quarter. In Q2, Netflix released new seasons of House of Cards, Master of None and Orange Is the New Black. Per IMDb, those are some of Netflix’s most loved and most followed originals. House of Cards has a 9.0 rating on more than 365,000 votes. Orange Is the New Black has an 8.2 rating on 216,000 votes. Meanwhile, Master of None has an 8.3 rating on 40,000 votes.

While that voter base may seem small relative to the other two, its still far larger than Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) originals Transparent (17,000 votes) and Hand of God (8,000 votes).

Moreover, Netflix got a surprise in the quarter from 13 Reasons Why, the teen-focused drama which created a buzz on social media. On IMDb, 13 Reasons Why has an 8.6 rating on more than 110,000 votes, a huge number considering how new the show is.

Overall, the content slate was really good in the quarter. Historically, good content slates have led to good net add numbers. In turn, good net add numbers have led to huge jumps in the stock price.

Bottom Line

Q2 net add numbers should surprise to the upside, and that should propel NFLX stock markedly higher.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long NFLX and AMZN. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/07/netflix-inc-nflx-stock-gains/.

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