Monday’s market action was kind of rare, as you don’t get 1.8% smackdowns in the first week of January, so there’s not a lot to go on.

Going back to 1929, say the historical data experts at Bespoke Investment Group, there have only been 19 other years where the S&P 500 saw a decline of 1% of more in one of the first two trading days of the year, and just seven where there was a decline of more than 1.5%.

So, what has that meant going forward? Bespoke ran the numbers and found that following the 19 prior occurrences where the S&P 500 saw a decline of at least 1% in the first two trading days of the year, the index went on to record an average gain of 2.9% (median: +5%) for the rest of January, with positive returns 65% of the time. The remainder of the year saw an average gain of 2.2%, with positive returns just half of the time.

Compared to all years since 1929, the rest-of-January returns are significantly better than average, while the rest-of-year returns are significantly worse than average, says Bespoke.

However, if you just look at the more extreme declines of 1.5% or more on one of the first two days of trading, the outlook improves. Following the seven prior occurrences, the S&P 500 averaged a gain of 3.7% (median: +5.0%) for the rest of January and a gain of 7.5% (median: 12.3%) for the rest of the year.

Of course, trying to extrapolate an entire year from the action of one day is a fool’s errand. But this analysis does at minimum suggest that when investors start a year with a sell-off, it has tended to result in a short-term “flush,” or vacuum, into which buyers have swarmed.

My expectation is that the jobs report on Friday will begin to lift spirits, and, next week, sentiment should improve further as companies begin to report Q4 2014 earnings. They are probably going to be pretty good at minimum, so with sentiment depressed and central banks still on investors’ sides, there should be a pretty good snapback rally in the offing over the next two to three weeks that would fulfill the Bespoke study expectations that the rest of the month turns out well after early-January knockdowns. Here’s a bullish trade that will help you profit in that event.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFM) is an organic grocery titan whose shares took a beating last May. The company has cut some costs out of its model and reshaped some of the parts of the business that were hampering growth, and investors have responded by closing that gap. Recently the shares have been flat-lining around the $48 area, but appear to be ready to move on to the next phase of their recovery.

Shares of Whole Foods were up 0.6% on Monday, which was a major win on a day like that. The price is headed higher. Buy WFM for a target of $50.95 limit, good till canceled. Set a protective stop at $48.70 limit, good till canceled.   

Jon Markman operates the investment firm Markman Capital Insights. He also offers a daily trading advisory service, Trader’s Advantage, and CounterPoint Options, a service that helps individual traders make steady, consistent profits with volatility-related instruments.