Should I Buy Or Sell GoPro (GPRO) Stock? 3 Pros, 3 Cons

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GoPro (GPRO) originally came onto the scene as one of the hottest new consumer tech companies in years. GPRO stock exploded higher, heading topping $90 a share in late 2014. Even as late as last August, GoPro shares still traded above the $60/share mark.

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Since then, it’s been a complete wipeout. The stock price has utterly collapsed. It dropped to as low as $9 in February, a 90% loss of value from its peak, before the recent rebound to $12. Is this latest upmove the start of a recovery for the company, or should GPRO stock still be avoided?

GoPro Stock Pros

Cyclical Low: Wall Street is a crowd that moves from euphoria to manic depression and back, over and over. You can argue that GPRO stock is currently deep into the revulsion stage of market pricing. With shares off nearly 90%, it’s been a long ride down, and any turn in sentiment would be rewarding.

GoPro put in especially ugly numbers last quarter arguably due to a lack of new product launches. Going forward, the Hero 5 is expected to launch in the second half of the year. Unlike 2015, there should be something new and interesting to drive consumer demand in front of the all-important holiday 2016 quarter. And then there’s the drones.

Changing GoPro’s Karma? The possible next product launch for GoPro is not the next Hero, but rather the company’s drone product, the Karma. There’s still a lot of unknowns about the Karma: Wired UK reported earlier this month that there still aren’t photos or detailed specs of the new drone.

However, buzz has been building. It’s expected that the Karma will be more portable than competitors. It also is expected to have better connectivity to social media than other options and is readily compatible with the company’s cameras. There’s a lot of cross-marketing and cross-distribution opportunities. And GoPro has a stronger brand than many of the other drone competitors. One thing is for sure, it is unlikely the recent revenue decline will continue once both the Hero and the Karma take flight.

Intellectual Property: GoPro has amassed numerous patents, trademarks, and other forms of intellectual property for its camera and other technologies related to the social media/sharing elements of the device platform.

These types of property, even though they are intangible, are often quite valuable. On February 5th, Microsoft (MSFTannounced a patent agreement with GoPro relating to the company’s “file storage and other systems technologies.” It’s hard to say what exactly Microsoft is after or how much GPRO stock will benefit, as terms of the deal are confidential. Regardless, one thing is clear: investors liked the news. My InvestorPlace colleague John Divine declared the bottom was in following the news, and GPRO stock rose by 4% in the after hours trading session following the announcement.

GPRO Stock: Cons

No Growth: To support elevated stock prices on a fundamental basis, you need a good deal of growth. Investors are willing to pay more today if they expect your revenues and profits to rise in the future. GPRO stock had formerly built great expectations into it. Now, investors have been forced to rethink those assumptions.

In the most recent quarter, GoPro’s revenue figure outright declined versus the comparable quarter last year. That is simply disastrous for a young company that presumably had a long growth runway ahead of it. Units sold dropped 16%, the company is laying off employees, and no imminent turn is expected in sales going forward. Growth companies aren’t generally firing employees and seeing falling sales. The story that carried GPRO stock to $90 is over. Going forward, GoPro stock is a value play that has a much lower stock price ceiling.

Drone Market Uncertainty: GoPro had a huge first mover advantage in the action camera space. Their product became almost synonymous with the whole category before competitors had a chance to react.

For the drone market, the reverse is true. GoPro’s Karma is not the first drone to market, and won’t have any edge from being the flashy newcomer to dazzle consumers. DJI already has 3,000 employees and sought to raise money at a $10 billion valuation last year. It’s estimated the firm did $500 million in revenues in 2014 and could have doubled that figure in 2015.

Karma certainly could be a success. GoPro has a great brand and very well-engaged consumers. Marketing the Karma through the same distribution channels could make it a great success story. But there’s no guarantee, and unlike previously, there’s already an entrenched competitor to deal with.

Arguably Still Overvalued: At the current price, GPRO stock still trades at around 50x trailing earnings, and that’s arguably generous, since it appears the company may be unprofitable going forward. The company trades at around 1x sales, which isn’t a bargain either when sales are falling and the business has low margins. Even in the happier quarters of 2015, the company was making a generally single-digit operating profit margin.

The company’s balance sheet is nice, with almost $4/share in cash and no debt. But the company is likely to head toward being cash flow negative this year. And unless the drones really take off, it’s hard to see GoPro ever becoming a gusher of cash.

From IPO to the most recent quarter, GPRO in total had earned just over $2/share in profits, and never managed more than 99 cents of EPS in a single quarter. Even in the good days, this company wasn’t particularly profitable. Now with much consumer demand already tapped (once you own one action camera, how many more do you need?), and more competitors on the scene, it’s hard to see a huge compelling case to the upside.

GoPro Stock: Verdict

Trading between $10 and $13 per share, there’s a decent risk/reward play for GPRO stock. Things can hardly get worse than they already are in the short run. New product launches offer the probability of encouraging investors and changing the current negative narrative that’s been pummeling the company. The stock has run up a lot since bottoming out, so I wouldn’t go buying immediately, but on another dip, if you want to buy this fallen growth name, it might be worth a shot.

At the time of this writing, Ian Bezek held no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

Ian Bezek has written more than 1,000 articles for InvestorPlace.com and Seeking Alpha. He also worked as a Junior Analyst for Kerrisdale Capital, a $300 million New York City-based hedge fund. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2016/03/should-i-buy-sell-gopro-gpro-stock-pros-cons/.

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