Should You Buy Shopify Stock? 3 Pros, 3 Cons.

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SHOP stock - Should You Buy Shopify Stock? 3 Pros, 3 Cons.

Source: Shopify via Flickr

Another week, another bear comes after Shopify Inc (NASDAQ:SHOP). A highly critical report published on Seeking Alpha is making the rounds Wednesday, with SHOP stock down 6% on the session as of this writing.

The latest bear’s line of reasoning continues down the path that Citron Research laid out last year. Citron suggested that Shopify is taking advantage of customers and would run into trouble with the FTC. That hasn’t happened yet, but the concerns Citron raised remain valid. That said, bears should be careful. SHOP stock has continued to rally in recent months, as the company’s extreme growth rate makes it tough to bet against.

SHOP Stock Cons

High Churn: The bull case for SHOP stock is built on the idea that the company is a highly valuable SAAS business. It should be valued like Salesforce.com, inc. (NYSE:CRM) because of high profit margins and sticky customers. Salesforce tends to run a sub 10% annual churn rate, meaning that the average customer sticks around 10+ years. That makes for huge profit margins, as marketing spend doesn’t need to be that high to keep the user base up.

Shopify is unlikely to do anywhere near that well. Critics have suggested that Shopify is closer to a mid-level marketing “MLM” program. Potential customers hear that they can be an internet entrepreneur selling stuff on the web. Sign up and watch the money roll in. But when Shopify hosts hundreds of thousands of often similar websites, it’s highly improbable that most will succeed. Rather, most people will sign up, build a basic site, not get much traction, and give up. Most direct sales folks and most physical small businesses fail quickly — there’s no reason to suspect that a multitude of new online small retail shops will do much better.

Facebook Vulnerability: Short sellers, such as Citron Research, have been hammering Shopify for months now on the point above. However, Citron is now making a new argument as well.

Specifically, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) is shifting its policies following its Cambridge Analytica scandal. The company plans to make it more difficult for low-quality advertisers to use its data to target consumers. This could be problematic for Shopify, since many of the site’s leading stores appear to be this sort of advertiser that could be impacted. Shopify’s financing business for retail stores could also take a hit if Facebook kicks advertisers off the platform, thus making it difficult for Shopify to recover its loans out of future retailer revenues.

Exceedingly Expensive: SHOP stock is selling at more than 250x forward earnings. That’s a rather outlandish number. Bulls will point to the company’s 68% revenue growth rate as justification for the valuation. Still it isn’t enough to support SHOP stock up here.

The company is selling at more than 22x sales. Even for the fastest-growing tech stocks out there, paying more than 10x sales rarely ends up turning out well. Analysts suggest that over the next decade, Shopify may be able to boost revenues from around $1 billion today to $5 billion. Even so, the market cap today is $17 billion and the company doesn’t yet make any meaningful profits on said revenues. Waiting a decade to reach $5 billion in sales isn’t that appealing when the price tag today is $17 billion and there are questions about the sustainability of some of those subscription revenues.

SHOP Stock Pros

Sizzling Growth: Bears have an interesting argument about the potentially faddish nature of Shopify’s business. But until the potential weakness turns into a real slowdown on the revenue growth numbers, SHOP stock could keep soaring.

Shopify is growing revenues at a 68% rate. Over the past five years, it has grown revenues at a compounded 95%/year. That’s essentially Shopify doubling its business five years in a row. With such an enlarged revenue base, it’s impressive that Shopify is still growing so quickly. Bulls will likely hold the upper hand on SHOP stock as long as such rates of revenue growth continue.

Balanced Business: Shopify is probably more well-known for its subscription service-based revenues. That’s certainly where critics such as Citron have hammered the company, anyways.

However, Shopify really has two related businesses. Shopify’s first business are designing and hosting digital storefronts that can operate on sites such as Facebook. The other is merchant solutions, which accounts for just over half of revenues. Shopify’s backend solutions manages inventory, shipping, and various payments systems for retailers ranging from brick and mortar through to ecommerce and mobile. Even if Shopify’s subscription model is questionable, as bears claim, its merchant business could remain highly valuable.

Marijuana Sales: Shopify continues its push into the frontier market that is legal marijuana sales. Last week, Shopify earned the right to run the province of British Columbia’s online marijuana sales channel. In addition, it will also manage a state-licensed warehouse that it turn distributes marijuana to private retailers.

VP of Shopify Plus, Loren Padelford, said that, “You’re seeing us win these contracts because we can help them get where they want to go on the timeframes which are very tight and challenging.”

This is Shopify’s second win in this area, it picked up Ontario’s contract earlier this year. While it is unclear how much revenues these deal could bring in the near-term, it positions Shopify well in an emerging growth market that could become huge as more states and countries decriminalize marijuana.

SHOP Stock Verdict

Shopify stock is a battleground now. On the one side, the bulls say concerns are overblown. The company’s merchant services business is stronger than bears realize, and Facebook’s crackdown won’t eliminate all that many customers.

Bears, on the other hand, are convinced Shopify has major problems ahead. They’ve maintained a large short interest in SHOP stock despite the run-up in the price. From my perspective, the bears have the better argument. It’s unlikely that Shopify is the next Salesforce.com. That said, this looks like a dangerous stock, to either buy or sell short. It’s in my avoid pile.

At the time of this writing, the author owned FB stock and had no positions in the other aforementioned securities.

Ian Bezek has written more than 1,000 articles for InvestorPlace.com and Seeking Alpha. He also worked as a Junior Analyst for Kerrisdale Capital, a $300 million New York City-based hedge fund. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/06/should-you-buy-shopify-stock-3-pros-3-cons/.

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