Early reception to Nike‘s (NYSE:NKE) controversial “Just Do It” ad campaign featuring former NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick (the one who started the NFL kneeling protests) has been quite positive, and that is a good thing for NKE stock.

Although the verdict is still out, the consensus opinion among Wall Street analysts, investors, and advertising pros is that the Kaepernick advertisement will actually create tailwinds for Nike’s business by energizing its core demographic and improving its brand image through increased social awareness.

That is a good thing for Nike stock. In fact, it is much more than that. It is a necessary thing for Nike stock. NKE has run up to all-time high valuation levels that are only sustainable if the company’s sales trajectory continues to improve. Tailwinds from the Kaepernick campaign could help improve Nike’s sales trajectory, and as such, are necessary for Nike stock to keep its lofty valuation.

Investment takeaway? I’m not buying Nike stock here. It’s too expensive, and I think there are better places in the athletic apparel space to park your money. Ideally, Nike has some hiccup over the next six months, which pulls the valuation lower and brings the stock back to its moving averages. If that happens, that’s a dip worth buying.

Until then, Nike stock will likely be a small winner thanks to strong tailwinds attempting to justify an overstretched valuation.

Campaign Was A Smart Move

Nike stock initially dropped after the Kaepernick campaign launched as investors were reacting to what was seen as a nationwide Nike boycott. All over Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) — egged on by the Twitter’er in chief — you could find people burning their Nike clothes and promising to never buy from the brand again.

But, upon closer inspection, it appears that Nike knew exactly what it was doing. After all, Nike’s core demographic skews young and urban, and that demographic also highly aligns with social awareness. and believes that big companies should stand for something meaningful. To them, the Kaepernick campaign is a sign that Nike cares, and is willing to stand up for social issues. A recent Quinnipiac University poll found that most Americans, especially young Americans, approved of the Kaepernick campaign.

Also, in this world, consumers don’t follow companies. They follow athletes. Nike didn’t become Nike because of Nike. Nike became Nike because of Michael Jordan. And, Nike has remained Nike because of LeBron James, Christiano Ronaldo, Serena Williams, Kevin Durant, and many more headline athletes who are part of the Nike team. Fortunately for Nike, all those athletes are vocally supporting the new Nike campaign. That support should further energize the core demographic of Nike consumers.

These qualitative insights seem to be corroborated by research. Wall Street firms Canaccord Genuity and Telsey Advisory Group both recently released notes saying that the Kaepernick campaign is a positive for Nike, based on internal polling. Search interest trends related to Nike surged to all-time highs recently. Moreover, a recent Harris poll found that while the ad alienated some consumers, it unequivocally energized Nike’s core of young male consumers.

Overall, the campaign is a win for Nike. While negative sentiment has risen, it won’t last because Nike is king of this space. Meanwhile, on the other side, the athletic-wear maker has energized its core demographic, and that core will buy more now than ever before. This tailwind should last because, again, Nike is king of this space. Thus, tailwinds will last, and headwinds won’t.

Nike Stock Can Maintain Current Levels

Normally, I would say “buy Nike stock” because of the Kaepernick catalyst, especially since this catalyst is materializing ahead of what promises to be a robust holiday season thanks to decade-high consumer strength and confidence.

But, I wouldn’t buy NKE stock here. Not because the Kaepernick catalyst won’t live up the hype. But, because even if it does, Nike stock doesn’t deserve a price tag much higher than the one it currently has.

NKE is trading at more than 30X forward earnings. The five-year average forward multiple is below 25. The last time Nike stock traded at this big of a valuation was back in late 2015. From late 2015 to late 2016, NKE fell from ~$70 to ~$50 a share.

In other words, the current valuation is historically unsustainable. But, I also don’t see Nike stock dropping anytime soon, considering its recent operational strength and momentum from both the Kaepernick campaign and new product launches.

Consequently, the story of Nike stock going forward is simple. Operations are on fire. But, the stock is already priced for big growth. Thus, operational tailwinds will battle valuation friction. The net result will be small gains in Nike stock.

I love the growth narrative supporting Nike stock. But, I don’t love the price. As such, I think Nike stock is a “buy the dip” stock.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long TWTR.