Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged from $38,500 to more than $50,000 per token over the past three weeks. That’s the kind of move long-term bulls like to see, and momentum traders are also starting to jump on. Where it’s headed next is part of my BTC-USD stock outlook.

Of course, a key driving factor behind this move is significant capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analysts predict prices exceeding $52,000 soon and surpassing $100,000 by year-end. However, IntoTheBlock’s on-chain analysis suggests resistance near $48,500.

According to IntoTheBlock, over 800,000 crypto addresses acquired nearly 270,000 Bitcoin at an average cost of around $48,491. These addresses may sell as BTC nears $48,491, hindering bullish momentum. IntoTheBlock stated on X that Bitcoin aims for $50K but faces resistance from these addresses.

Let’s dive into whether this bear thesis will play out, or whether this Bitcoin rally can continue into year-end. After all, Bitcoin is the most-watched crypto for a reason and stands out as a key benchmark for this sector.

Bitcoin Halving 2024

There’s plenty in store for Bitcoin this year that bulls should be excited about. Capital is finally starting to flow the right direction into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which could be a longer-term catalyst than many initially thought. But that’s old news. Investors are now focused on upcoming catalysts – top of mind is Bitcoin’s upcoming halving in April.

Every four years or so, Bitcoin halves its token mining rewards. This means the amount of new Bitcoin issued is halved, leading to less new supply on the market. With crypto being a supply-and-demand game (eventually, Bitcoin mining rewards will trend toward zero, with miners only compensated by transaction fees), such a supply constraint should be bullish for Bitcoin prices.

We’ll have to see how this event plays out, but historically, halving events tend to be positive for Bitcoin both before and after the halving. For those looking to time price moves, this has led to plenty of outsized bullish positioning on the token of late.

Bitcoin Isn’t Without Risk

Of course, what goes up can also go down, and investors have a feeling for what downside volatility looks like during the 2022 bear market in crypto.

However, with sentiment rebounding over the past year, the pendulum has swung again to an outright bullish narrative. This has led some in the crypto community to suggest Bitcoin is trading within a “high-risk zone,” and could see heightened downside if investors pull their funds from crypto to invest in other assets.

Glassnode’s long-term holder market value to realized value (MVRV) indicator shows seven of ten indicators as either “high” or “very high” risks. This suggests a possible market overheating and is certainly something to keep an eye on.

Achieving 6 Digits

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently put a $112,000 per Bitcoin price target for 2024 on Bitcoin, referencing institutional inflows. The realized cap could rise by $114 billion in 2024 because of spot ETF inflows. He added the “worst case” scenario price range would be between $55,000 and $59,000. This is central to my BTC-USD stock outlook.

The market is also clearly highlighting April’s halving as a key catalyst, with Adam Back suggesting Bitcoin could surpass six figures earlier than initially thought.

I’m of the view that price targets for Bitcoin are generally not very helpful. It’s good to hear these analysts’ rationale for why they think this token can surge to new highs. But because Bitcoin isn’t based on fundamentals as many other companies are, it’s simply too hard to value on such factors alone. Technical analysis is something I’ll leave to the pros, but it’s clear that price targets are on the rise for Bitcoin.

The Bull Case Is Certainly Intriguing

Bitcoin could certainly see some selling pressure materialize as traders and investors look to take some profits above the $50,000 level. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a near-term profit-taking-driven decline in the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

That said, I think the longer-term trend remains higher for this token, due to the nature of how it’s been designed from a supply standpoint. I do think this token’s upcoming halving event will prove to be a pivotal catalyst, and will watch it closely. This concludes my BTC-USD stock outlook.

On the date of publication, Chris MacDonald did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.