Twitter Inc (TWTR) stock jumped Monday on rumors of a deal, but even if the whispers turn out to be true, how much does an outside investment really move the valuation for TWTR?

Twitter stock has lost more than 40% of its value over the last three months and 35% since its initial public offering. Indeed, TWTR stock is at record lows.

Everyone who holds it is in the red regardless of the Twitter stock price paid. Surely, there must be upside in a stock beaten down this badly.

Maybe, maybe not. Chatter aside, an acquisition is unlikely at this point. Besides, how much of a premium would a private equity firm pay? Twitter doesn’t even deserve the rich multiple it commands now, changing hands at 30 times forward earnings despite serious clouds over its long-term growth.

At any rate, there have been acquisition rumors before — including a deal from Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp (NWS, NWSA) — and they’ve never panned out. That makes an outside investment the more likely arrangement if something comes to pass.

Monday’s vague reports have Marc Andreessen and private equity shop Silver Lake Partners considering some sort of deal. However, private equity interest doesn’t warrant much — or any — upside move in the Twitter stock price.

If this were a takeover, sure, TWTR stock would look pretty good on the deal premium. The benefits of an outside investment aren’t clear at all.

What Twitter Stock Really Needs

An outside investment is supposed to buy Twitter time to sort itself out. More likely, it’s just throwing good money after bad. After all, it’s not like a lack of capital is responsible for Twitter’s underwhelming performance as both a social media company and a stock.

The problem is that domestic monthly active user growth has hit a wall and sentiment has soured on TWTR stock. Yes, Twitter may have a growing ad business, but that doesn’t much matter if it doesn’t continue to scale.

It turns out that Twitter doesn’t have the same kind of appeal as Facebook (FB), Instagram or Snapchat. Indeed, surveys show that it is much less popular than the big three for people between the ages of 13 and 24.

So Twitter doesn’t need an outside investment — it needs ideas. If Andreessen and Silver Lake have any, great. But they’re not really known for their activism.

True, it’s quite possible that some activist investor is quietly building a stake right in TWTR stock right now, but how can anyone fix a popularity problem?

And if that weren’t enough, key executives are resigning in droves.

At this point, Twitter stock is surrounded by uncertainty, and the market hates uncertainty. Business is stalled and the C suite is in disarray.

There’s nothing wrong with selling at the first opportunity, and Monday’s rally looks as good as any.

As of this writing, Dan Burrows did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.