Why Chesapeake Energy Might Be Out of Rallies

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Few stocks in the last decade have circled the wagons more frequently than Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK). Time and again, CHK stock has been left for dead, only to rise from the grave like Nosferatu.

Why Chesapeake Energy Might Be Out of Rallies

This time, it doesn’t look like the energy producer is going to get back up.

Like many energy stocks — including big boys Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) — Chesapeake Energy got knocked on its butt when oil and natural gas prices lost more than two-thirds of their value from the summer of 2014 to early 2016.

But with its debt mounting, few in the energy sector were thrown for a loop as much as CHK stock holders, with shares diving from from $29 in June 2014 to as low as $1.59 in February 2016.

The stock hasn’t been higher than $8 since, and has been trending downward for most of 2017 as oil prices have slipped.

Chesapeake Energy Has Bounced Back Before

It’s easy to see why people have been reluctant to count CHK out. Consider these monster rallies in the last 10 years:

  • After peaking at $62 in June 2008, the stock fell all the way to $14 in just eight months; by September 2009, it was back up to $26.
  • By mid-2010, Chesapeake was back down to $19. By February 2011, it was back up to $33.
  • By mid-2012, CHK stock again was down to $15. By late 2013, it was back up to $26, and eventually got to $29.50 the following year.

In each case, it took less than a year for shares to get rolling again.

Looking at the bigger picture, however, Chesapeake stock has never recovered from the global recession, scarcely trading higher than half its pre-recession value at any point. The reasons are twofold: Profit growth all but disappeared, and its debt started to pile up, now up to $9.5 billion (versus just $249 million in cash).

What makes things worse this time around for Chesapeake Energy is that its sales aren’t even growing anymore, declining an average of more than 41% in 2015 and 2016. While a 41% top-line improvement in the first quarter was encouraging, it will take a few more of those for the company to put a meaningful dent in its debt stockpile.

The good news is that rising natural gas prices should help Chesapeake churn out a few profitable quarters. Last quarter, the company was back in the black for the first time since 2014, and that was with nat-gas prices plummeting in January and February. Now they’re back above $3, up more than 21% since bottoming at $2.68 in mid-February.

That bodes well for what is already a rosy forecast for the coming quarters: analysts estimate EPS of 86 cents per share this year, which would be Chesapeake’s best bottom-line result since 2014.

CHK Stock Isn’t Responding to Growth

So, is the expected growth and the recent upturn in natural gas and oil prices enough to go on if you’re looking for an energy play that trades at a mere 5 times forward earnings?

I say no — at least not yet. Not after three (mostly) down years.

At some point, a stock has to prove itself again, even one that has repeatedly pulled off miraculous recoveries. Chesapeake has yet to do that; even a return to sales growth in the first quarter wasn’t enough smelling salt to awaken the stock from its slumber.

The unfortunate reality of investing is that the company is not the stock. And while Chesapeake Energy’s growth prospects look more promising than they have been in a while, CHK stock has yet to respond.

If stocks have nine lives, it’s possible that Chesapeake Energy has already used them all.

As of this writing, Chris Fraley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/05/why-chesapeake-energy-chk-stock-might-be-out-of-rallies/.

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