Under Armour Stock Is Broken – Stay Away

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UAA - Under Armour Stock Is Broken – Stay Away

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Once the high-flying growth darling in the athletic retail space, Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UAA) has quickly turned into the ugly duckling.

The athletic retail company, which had been riding high back in 2015 thanks to a superb athlete portfolio that included NBA superstar Stephen Curry and golf sensation Jordan Spieth, just posted its first sales decline as a public company.

Under Armour also dramatically cut its full-year earnings guide as margin compression remains a serious headwind. UAA stock is down 17% as a result.

The writing had been on the wall for this sales decline for some time. Stephen Curry has taken a backseat to new teammate and Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) athlete Kevin Durant.

Jordan Spieth is a name that doesn’t come up that often anymore. Plus, Under Armour has failed to add any new and exciting athletes to its pipeline. Consequently, brand popularity has fallen off a cliff.

Now, sales are following suit.

All in all, UAA stock has fallen from $50 in July 2015 to $13.50 today. That is a big fall, but the stock remains a sell even at these lows because the top-line growth narrative is broken, gross margins will remain pressured, and the valuation remains rich.

Under Armour Is a Broken Story

There really three big things at play here.

One, the North American business is in free fall. Revenues fell 12% in the quarter. That is pretty ugly considering Under Armour’s North American business (~$1.1 billion) is about a fourth the size of Nike’s North American business (~$4 billion). Its also pretty ugly considering North America revenues were essentially flat over the past 2 quarters, meaning that the popularity of the UAA brand is rapidly falling.

Unfortunately, there is no quick fix here. Nike is putting on the full court press in the athletic retail industry, and they have more resources than any other player in the space. Plus, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is flirting with rolling out an athletic apparel line. Overall, the outlook for UAA brand in North America remains bleak.

Two, the international business is slowing down and proving insufficient to offset North American weakness. The North America business represents almost 80% of sales, so if that side of the business is in decline, then UAA needs big growth from its international segment to power positive net revenue growth.

That isn’t happening anymore. Through the first two quarters of 2017, Under Armour’s international business posted 50%-plus revenue growth. This quarter, that dropped to 34%. A 34% growth rate is still great, but it represents a deceleration in the international growth narrative.

Unfortunately, there is also no quick fix here. The pressure of a revamped Nike will be felt everywhere, not just in North America. There is also the problem that UAA’s North America revenues maxed out rather early, implying a similar shockingly low ceiling for the international business.

Three, gross margins are getting killed. They fell 160 basis points in the quarter and are expected to fall 220 basis points for the year. This is an industry-wide headwind. Nike reported gross margin compression of about 180 basis points last quarter.

Again, there is no quick fix here. The athletic retail backdrop remains persistently promotional. There are no signs of this easing in the foreseeable future.

Bottom Line on UAA Stock

Let’s take a look at the numbers.

Revenues are expected to grow in the low single-digit range this year. That growth rate is likely here to stay into the foreseeable future. International growth will slow down.

North America declines will moderate. All in all, revenues should continue to grow at a low single-digit rate over the next several years.

Gross margins likely won’t rebound much, but to be aggressive, let’s say that the promotional environment eases and UAA expands margins. Such margin expansion would likely be minimal and add only a few percentage points of growth.

Therefore, at best, UAA is looking at high single-digit earnings growth over the next several years.

Earnings this year are expected to be just 19 cents per share. That means UAA stock is trading at 71-times this year’s earnings for what is at best 10% annualized growth over the next several years.

Too rich? Without a doubt.

Just like the growth narrative, UAA stock is broken.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long NKE.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/10/under-armour-stock-is-broken-stay-away/.

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