With markets getting thumped on a seemingly weekly basis, investors are looking for safe havens. It’s an understandable desire given the volatility. Unfortunately, not all of the stocks that people are picking are quite as secure as they may first seem. I’d put Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) firmly in that category. There’s just more risk in Disney stock than you probably think.

To its credit, Disney stock has indeed held up very well during the recent market selloff. DIS is trading in the low $110s, down just a few percent from its 52-week high at $120. Here’s why DIS stock could fall toward $100 in coming weeks if the market doesn’t reverse course.

How Recession Resistant Is the Business, Really?

Disney stock bulls rally around the idea that the company is highly insulated from economic shocks due to its many operating business units. You can classify Disney as a classic conglomerate, as it has operations spanning film, TV, media, theme parks, toys, and so on. In theory, this should make it safer than a more narrow business.

In practice, however, many of Disney’s operations end up relying on the same thing: strong consumer spending. TV properties such as ESPN and ABC need a strong economy to drive advertising sales. Family vacations to Disney World and other company properties will struggle during hard economic times. Movie ticket, DVD/Blu Ray and merchandise sales also rely on consumer spending.

During the financial crisis, Disney saw some cracks in its business. Between 2007 and 2010, revenues grew less than 20% and earnings were essentially flat. Through that stretch, Disney stock fell from a high of $36 to a trough of $16, losing more than half its value and slightly underperforming the market as a whole. Again, not a terrible performance, but hardly my first choice for a defensive safe haven, especially with a dividend yield of just 1.6% at the moment.

Broadcasting Still A Soft Spot

Disney is making a huge push on streaming services. It’s not hard to see why. The company’s flagship ESPN franchise, and other channels like ABC have been trouble for Disney for years.

For the fiscal year 2018 which concluded at the end of September, Disney reported another meaningful drop for its Media Networks operating division. Operating profits declined to $6.6 billion in 2018, down from $6.9 billion in 2017, and $7.7 billion in 2016. Overall Disney corporate profit grew by an acceptable 6%, although this was largely caused by studio entertainment rebounding nicely after a very soft 2017.

Disney’s core problem, however, hasn’t gone anywhere. Media Networks is the company’s largest operating segment, both in terms of revenues and profits. It contributed $6.6 billion in profit this year, compared to $4.5 billion for parks and resorts, $3.0 billion for studio entertainment, and $1.6 billion for consumer products and interactive media. If it continues to shrink, it’s hard for the company as a whole to grow.

Can Streaming Save The Day?

With that backdrop, it makes sense why Disney feels so compelled to reverse the decline in its Media Networks division. As cord cutting continues to take away subscribers, Disney’s largest profit source is bound to keep shrinking.

Streaming could potentially fix this. As such, Disney has made acquisitions such as BAMTech to move into streaming faster. Disney’s current plans involve three separate streaming packages that will try to attract different portions of its overall audience. The acquisition of large portions of Twenty-First Century Fox (NASDAQ:FOXA) is intended to further diversify their content offerings.

However, color me unconvinced. Consumers like simplicity, having one subscription for all their needs. Witness how quickly Spotify (NYSE:SPOT) took off in music, even though some of its rivals have differentiated content or a potentially better user experience. It’s a pain (and potentially expensive) to have to subscribe to a bunch of individual streaming services to get all the video content out there.

Ultimately, the content companies are creating far more streaming services than there will likely be demand for. There’s only so much viewing time and attention out there after all. Given the network effects in place, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) still has a clear lead over Disney and its other rivals. Disney could catch up, but again, we’re talking about a Disney division that currently earns $6.6 billion a year. No streaming offering is going to make anything close to that anytime soon. Netflix, the leader, only earned $1.3 billion as a company last year, for example.

Disney Stock Is in a Key Place Technically

Investorplace contributor Will Healy brought up an interesting point recently. He suggested that DIS stock is in an interesting area technically that could lead to big gains. Healy wrote that: “The previous quarterly report confirmed the improvements, and now Disney trades near the all-time high. If the equity can set a new all-time high and stay above the $122 per share level, DIS stock will become hard to stop.”

I fully agree. Technical breakouts are a big deal. Oftentimes, a stock will start rallying strongly the moment it reaches new all-time highs. Short sellers give up and cover, while momentum traders pile in on the long side.

So if Disney stock can get to new all-time highs despite the rocky market, it would have a shot at a big move upward. Technical forces alone could potentially move the stock as high as $140 again if it can break out. However, that $120 area is looking like pretty solid resistance at this point, with DIS stock having failed multiple times up there. I’d wait to trade Disney stock until it breaks out. And if it doesn’t, I’d avoid it altogether, as another decline to $100 or below would become likely.

At the time of this writing, Ian Bezek held no positions in any of the aforementioned securities. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.