Following the recovery in the broader U.S. indices since the record decline on Dec. 26 (as well as recent robust quarterly reports from many U.S.-listed stocks across various sectors), many long-term investors are now wondering whether the current Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock price offers a good entry point.

While I am cautiously optimistic on AAPL shares in the long-run, I would not commit too much new capital to the stock in early February. Here is why it is still too soon to invest in Apple.

Do Apple Investors Have All the News for Now?

Over the past several months, investor worries about the iPhone, adverse effects of high U.S. dollar on the company’s foreign earnings, U.S.-China trade wars, and Apple’s poor performance in China due to the country’s economic woes have translated into constant negative headlines and lower stock prices.

After the sharp declines in the U.S. indices and stocks in the final quarter of 2018, January brought more drama and a reversal of fortunes for Apple shareholders. The stock went from an intraday low of $142 on Jan. 3, the day after the company blamed China for a bombshell sales forecast, to an intraday high of $171.64 on Feb.4, on the heels of its quarterly release on Jan. 29.

When AAPL beat the tepid earnings which had already been reduced, the stock enjoyed a relief rally, as investors possibly decided that all the bad news had come out and the worst was behind the company.

The quarterly report also confirmed that iPhone sales, which had been the primary impetus behind the company reaching a $1 trillion market cap in early August, would possibly not be the primary growth driver in 2019 and beyond.

Instead, the new, exciting and profitable area is likely to be Apple Services, which includes the App Store, Apple Pay, iTunes, AppleCare and Apple Music. Wall Street is indeed cheering the high gross margin of 62.8%.

Following the release of its quarterly report, investors are yet again debating what Apple should or would do with its over $240 billion worth of cash — most of which is overseas. In the past, as the margins have decreased on Apple’s technology products, share buybacks have been an essential driver of the share price.

The issue of corporate buybacks is under close scrutiny following the recent proposal by Senators Charles Schumer and Bernie Sanders to limit corporate stock buybacks, a practice that, over the past decade,  is increasingly being debated and challenged by investors, analysts, and lawmakers alike.

Wall Street now wants Apple to show that it still has the vision and the desire to allocate the cash at hand towards a profitable goal that would generate further cash flow. Otherwise, long-term investors may choose to stay on the sidelines.

What May Drive AAPL Stock Price in February?

Now that the earnings season is behind Apple, daily volatility in the shares and many other tech heavyweights will depend on macroeconomic news as well as the action of big, day traders.

In other words, in the next couple of weeks, I expect AAPL stock price to be a battleground between two camps: long-term investors and day traders. Investors are now hopeful that the company will be able to fully work through iPhone and China-related issues while it builds Apple Services further. Bulls further call attention to how fast the stock has come back since Jan 3.

On the other hand, bears will be happy to point out that the none of the macroeconomic or iPhone margin challenges have entirely gone away and that the up move in January was merely a relief rally, following extremely oversold conditions.

Meanwhile any daily news on the state of the Chinese economy, potential Fed rate hikes in 2019, the reaction of the European markets during the final phases of “Brexit” — the U.K.’s departure from the European Union (E.U.) on Mar. 29 — and any other global political tension, say in Venezuela (with its effect on commodity prices, such as oil) will give traders plenty of opportunities to move the stock in either direction.

For example, in the case of a swift resolution to the U.S.-China trade wars in the coming weeks, the AAPL stock price will likely have a rapid 5-8% move upward. Yet, if the U.K. crashes out of the E.U. without a trade deal, the U.S. markets are likely to follow the European markets, which would undoubtedly see an initial sharp fall. As international sales account for about two-thirds of Apple’s total revenue, global events matter for Apple’s balance sheet and stock price.

Therefore, in February, I expect APPL stock to trade in a range, between $175 and $155.

Short-Term Technical Analysis

In January, and following this earnings call, investors have indeed rushed into AAPL stock. For those investors who pay attention to short-term technical charts, Apple’s momentum indicators, which describe the speed at which prices move over a given period, are currently in overbought territory. Although these indicators can stay overbought for quite a long time, short-term profit-taking is probably around the corner.

This current short-term overbought chart follows several months of price decline which has caused a longer-term damaging technical picture. Therefore, Apple stock will need to stabilize and build a base again before another long-term sustained leg up can occur.

Is It Time to Invest in Apple Stock?

If you already own AAPL stock, you might want to hold your position. However, within the parameters of your portfolio allocation and risk/return profile, you may consider placing a stop loss at about 4-6% below the current price point.

If you are looking for an entry signal to buy Apple shares, both from a technical chart perspective and based on fundamental metrics and valuation, I am not expecting the stock to make another significant leg-up any time soon. You may want to wait for the release of the next quarterly statement in April 2019 to re-evaluate the balance sheet and the fundamentals.

Patient investors who continue to believe in the AAPL story may see any price dip below the $160 level as an opportunity to go long AAPL stock and ride out the daily volatility. In 2-3 years, I expect these investors to be rewarded handsomely.

As of this writing, Tezcan Gecgil did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.