Bet Against the Bears: Why Boeing Stock’s Worst-Case Scenario Is Overblown

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  • Boeing (BA) is undergoing a C-suite shakeup and is at risk of a debt-rating downgrade from Moody’s.
  • Given the negative sentiment towards Boeing, contrarian investors should consider a potential relief rally.
  • This is a good time to start a position in Boeing stock.
Boeing stock - Bet Against the Bears: Why Boeing Stock’s Worst-Case Scenario Is Overblown

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Boeing (NYSE:BA) has been grounded in 2024 so far, but the year is still young and there are changes afoot at Boeing. True contrarians should invest in Boeing stock amidst market worries. Fatal plane crashes in 2018 and 2019, followed by the grounding the 737 MAX jet model, caused long-term damage to Boeing’s reputation and bottom line.

However, from the depths of pessimism, there could be a stunning share-price rally. With that in mind, investors should think about buying Boeing stock when others are panic-selling it.

Boeing’s Executive Shakeup and Possible Debt-Rating Downgrade

You can’t buy a stock on the dip if there’s no dip – but in most cases, there’s no dip unless a company is having problems. BA stock is far below its 2019 peak of over $400, and prospective investors must decide whether Boeing’s current problems are deal-breakers.

For one thing, Moody’s Investors Service is considering downgrading Boeing’s debt ratings. Reportedly, the Moody’s analysts are concerned that Boeing “will be unable to deliver 737 narrow-body aircraft at the volumes required for it to materially expand its free cash flow and retire debt in a reasonable timeframe.”

The market is highly efficient and forward-looking. So, the threat of a debt-ratings downgrade could actually be worse than an actual downgrade. The other recent event that’s causing consternation is Boeing’s executive-level shakeup.

In particular, Boeing Chief Operating Officer Stephanie Pope will replace Stan Deal, the chief of Boeing’s commercial airplane division. The main topic of conversation for many Boeing stock traders, though, is that Dave Calhoun will step down from Boeing’s CEO position at the end of this year.

There’s added uncertainty in this situation because Boeing hasn’t yet named Calhoun’s replacement. This could help to explain why some investors and analysts may feel trepidation about Boeing’s near-term future prospects.

Are Worst-Case Scenarios Already Priced Into Boeing Stock?

If there’s one thing that the market can’t tolerate, it’s uncertainty. Often, uncertainty causes investors to envision the worst potential outcomes. Yet contrarians should relish the opportunities that stem from uncertainty.

Boeing stock is far down from its peak price and is also down year-to-date even while the overall market is up. Now, that’s what I would call peak pessimism. Not every Wall Street expert is in a sour mood about Boeing, though.

Indeed, Seaport Global analyst Richard Safran set a fairly optimistic price target of $262 on Boeing stock. Apparently, Safran feels that the CEO change was expected and could actually help to get Boeing back on track.

In a similar vein, Citigroup analyst Jason Gurksy called Boeing’s leadership change-up “both predictable and thoughtful.” As Gursky sees it, it’s perfectly fine that Boeing hasn’t identified a new CEO yet:

“The way that they’re doing this is the right way to do it, right? Suggesting that they’re going to have the existing leadership step out at the end of the year, to give themselves plenty of time to conduct a really methodical search.”

According to Gursky, Boeing can now give the “current CEO plenty of time to de-risk what’s going on at the company.” Hence, maybe Boeing can start a new chapter in 2025 – there are no guarantees, but at least there are possibilities.

Boeing Stock: A Rare Opportunity for Contrarian Investors

It’s time to conduct a gut check. Are you really a contrarian stock investor? If so, then you should relish the uncertainty and pessimism surrounding Boeing, rather than fear it.

So, let Moody’s downgrade Boeing’s debt rating. Let the market devalue Boeing stock based on fear, uncertainty and doubt. That’s your contrarian signal to pick up some Boeing shares. Just stay in the trade, and get ready for a relief rally if the imagined worst-case scenarios don’t happen for Boeing.

On the date of publication, David Moadel did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

David Moadel has provided compelling content – and crossed the occasional line – on behalf of Motley Fool, Crush the Street, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, TipRanks, Benzinga, and (of course) InvestorPlace.com. He also serves as the chief analyst and market researcher for Portfolio Wealth Global and hosts the popular financial YouTube channel Looking at the Markets.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2024/04/bet-against-the-bears-why-boeing-stocks-worst-case-scenario-is-overblown/.

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