First Housing, then Lumber?

Advertisement

 People love chopping wood. In this activity one immediately sees results. – Albert Einstein

Homebuilders have been on a tear since the October lows of last year, strongly outperforming the stock market on record low mortgage rates and a potential bottoming out of property prices. It’s becoming more possible that housing, which has been a drag on economic growth since 2005, may actually begin to be a net positive for the U.S. GDP in future quarters.

That’s not to say the boom times in housing are back, but rather that a gradual uptick could be underway. Investors in homebuilding stocks seem to be anticipating some kind of pickup to come, and momentum traders likely are interested in playing a continuation of the trend higher.

Outperformance certainly can continue, but perhaps it’s worth considering an investment in an area of the market that would more directly benefit from a rebound in homebuilding. Take a look below at the price ratio of the Guggenheim Timber ETF (NYSE:CUT) relative to the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA:XHB). As a reminder, a rising price ratio means the numerator/timber is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator/homebuilders.


Click to Enlarge
The idea of looking at timber companies after a big run-up in housing-related stocks is to play a lagging catch-up against the broader theme: that wood, which is largely used in homebuilding, could react to the message that the homebuilders’ stock outperformance is sending.

As this price ratio trend shows, the underperformance of timber relative to homebuilders is still intact, but it may turn around in the very near future as investors look toward commodities that would benefit from increased homebuilding. You can find a number of attractive stocks such as Weyerhaeuser (NYSE:WY) and Rayonier (NYSE:RYN), which also have healthy dividend yields and have yet to participate in the market’s rally in full force.

Regardless, investors should keep a close eye on the timber group for the potential to make strong returns.

The Lead-Lag Report is provided by Lead-Lag Publishing, LLC. All opinions and views mentioned in this report constitute our judgments as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time. Information within this material is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any individual investor. Trading signals produced by the Lead-Lag Report are independent of other services provided by Lead-Lag Publishing, LLC or its affiliates, and positioning of accounts under their management may differ. Please remember that investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and past performance may not be indicative of future results. Lead-Lag Publishing, LLC, its members, officers, directors and employees expressly disclaim all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

Michael A. Gayed is the Publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, and Portfolio Manager at Tidal Financial Group, an investment management company specializing in ETF-focused research, investment strategies and services designed for financial advisors, RIAs, family offices and investment managers.

InvestorPlace readers that are new subscribers to the The Lead-Lag Report can receive a 30% discount.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2012/02/first-housing-then-lumber/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC