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A small interest-rate hike is expected in December, and the first one or two rate hikes shouldn’t have too much influence on the market. But the huge global debt bubble is a severe depressant. President-elect Donald Trump is trying to portray himself as the new Ronald Reagan — but the problem he faces is that, when Reagan came in, the U.S. national debt was less than $1 trillion, and today it’s nearly $20 trillion. So, higher interest rates will increase the amount we have to pay on that debt.

And everyone else has the same problem. This high level of debt is why I don’t believe that OPEC nations are really going to limit oil production, for example. They all need the money just to keep going.

So, while I do expect the market to remain strong short-term, I think a lot of this stock rally is an overestimation of what’s going to happen in 2017. And I’m interested in longer-term bearish plays like today’s on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA):

Using a spread order, buy to open 1 BABA Apr. 21st $90 put and sell to open 2 BABA Apr. 21st $80 puts for a net debit of about $0.80.

A ratio debit spread is simply a way to lower the cost of buying options, as the two option(s) that you sell to open (short) helps offset the cost of the option that you buy to open. Therefore, this ratio put debit spread is a way to lower the cost of establishing a bearish put option trade. Many brokers will require the use of margin and/or a set amount of reserved capital and/or a margin account to execute a debit spread; contact your broker directly for specific requirements.

Because you are short a naked put in this ratio put debit spread, the risk is that you could be obligated to buy 100 shares of BABA at the $80 strike price for every 1 contract that you are short of the BABA Apr. 21st $80 puts. So, this is inherently a higher risk play — and you’ll want to avoid that risk by exiting if BABA gets down to $80.

Alibaba is part of the con game, is what I would call it, in which the Chinese government tries to fudge the numbers to make everything look better than it is. And BABA is a stock that should not be priced at that level. As I mentioned before, I’m making a longer-term bet that it will come down, having chosen an April expiration.

Ken Trester is editor of the popular Maximum Options program. Trester has been trading options since the first exchanges opened in 1973 with a winning streak that goes back to 1984 with money-doubling average annual profits since 1990.