Well, its almost two years since Barclays gave us VIX ETF’s to trade, namely the iPath Short-term Futures (NYSE: VXX) and iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures (NYSE: VXZ). And the more things change, the more they remain the same. If it’s Monday, its tough sailing for VXX. Or Tuesday, or Wednesday, or … you get the point.

Adjusting for a 1:4 reverse split, VXX has drifted from 400 to 33 in less than two years, a staggeringly tough performance. One might think some day, some way that VXX will stand up and explode. But it’s the same old, same old.

We have frequently documented the Contango Crush here. VXX has to maintain 30 days duration. But so long as VIX futures with less than 30 days remaining trade at a discount to the first VIX future with duration over 30 days, VXX will have the wind in its face. And right now the Feb VIX trades 2.30 over the Jan VIX. Don’t expect much improvement once they roll, as March trades 2.30 above Feb.

Only a lift in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) itself could offset this. Just don’t hold your breath there either. Thanks to the premiums already in VIX futures, VXX will not fully react to a VIX pop in that it essentially already prices one in. March VIX futures carry a $6 premium to VIX itself, and that will obviously narrow in a VIX pop.

VXZ has behaved much better over time. It tracks futures four to seven months out and the VIX futures curve out there remains relatively flat. The big issue is the size of the premiums themselves. They range from $7 for May to $9 for August. My worry here is that the further we get from 2008, the less likely traders will want to overpay for VIX futures. A VIX blip can happen any time (and we are likely overdue for one), but I feel comfortable saying the next VIX pop will indeed be a blip and a not a permanent re-pricing of Fear. Before 2008 there was no permanent assumption of a VIX move back into the mid 20’s, and I would guess we gradually return to that reality again.

That being said, the market does feel a bit tired, so I could see buying either VXX or VXZ (or both) as a trade. Or possibly as a near term hedge. I just don’t see a compelling reason for much more than that, even at these cheap prices.

Follow Adam Warner on Twitter @agwarner.