Recent Rally is Grand – But Sidelines Are Safer

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U.S. stocks managed to string together the third up day in a row, leaving the S&P 500 to close above the psychologically important 1,300 level. The much-discussed financials led the rally yesterday in part due to a favorable outcome from a Fed ruling on debit card swipe fees.

The Financial Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF) gapped higher at the open yesterday and never looking back managed to close above horizontal resistance (blue line). While this would be a nice spot to add to longs in the Financial Sector ETF  I will say that it is never this easy, although aggressive traders could test the long side here with stops at Tuesday’s high.

As discussed yesterday, the more important of the two Greek parliament votes happens today and the potential fall-out from a failure to pass could send massive shock waves through the financial markets. The quarter-end markups by mutual funds and the like sent the markets higher the past three days so and should largely be done now with only one day left in Q2.

The question now becomes whether stocks have enough staying power to keep going higher. Should both the Greek vote and the end of QE2 come and go without causing much market turbulence we then have second quarter earnings season to contend with just around the corner. The chart of the S&P 500 real quick; a nice and clear move above 1300 looks inviting to add positions to the long side. And if we weren’t at such a crucial intersection in the market I would agree and load the boat.

Technology as a sector traded well yesterday but Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) along with the semiconductors acted weak.

Because it is so important to the broader U.S. market mood, please see the chart of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and note the series of lower highs and lower lows since February.

The scariest aspect to the market currently is the lack of implied volatility priced into options.

The CBOE Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index(CBOE: VXN) trades below 20 and given the hugely uncertain outcome of Greece and end of QE2 I find that too complacent. Some of the smarter folks I know give the Greek parliament vote later today a fair chance of failing to pass.

I prefer to watch from the sidelines for the time being rather than taking blind stabs into this potential upcoming volatility.

Serge Berger is the head trader and investment strategist for The Steady Trader. Sign up for his free weekly newsletter.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/06/nyse-xlf-financial-etf-cash-sidelines/.

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