With the latest series of down sessions, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) stands at a fork in the road. Since early December 2016, AMD stock has barely moved. If the company wants to prove that its shocking recovery from two years back was no fluke, we need to see something substantive now.
Unfortunately, Advanced Micro Devices stock lacks the momentum generated by its rivals.
Year to date, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) shares are up nearly 14%. Chief competitor in the graphics card space, Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), is up almost 25%. AMD is also up for the year, but just barely; we’re talking less than 0.2%. This is not the kind of message that you want to send to your increasingly impatient shareholders.
On cue, some AMD analysts have begun to sound the alarm. None can match Viceroy Research’s extremely bearish call for $0, citing security concerns in the company’s latest products. Others wisely take a more moderate approach. The overall consensus among covering AMD analysts has remained ambiguous, neither biting on its potential nor overreacting to its troubles.
But with so many changes occurring in the market, AMD stock will move decisively towards one direction or another. Figuring out which direction has always been a head-scratcher.
Can AMD Stock Cheat Its Fundamentals?
Just to be clear, I don’t think that Advanced Micro Devices stock will fall to zero anytime soon. While I understand Viceroy Research’s concerns, AMD still has multiple lucrative assets. The company, though, may not deserve its lofty valuation.
Yes, some financial metrics are strong points, and investors surely analyzed them when they bought up AMD stock. But taken as a whole, the picture isn’t too bright. The company’s free cash flow is all over the map. Historically, it has fallen behind in research and development. Most importantly, AMD has to demonstrate consistent earnings and not rely on storytelling.
Frustratingly, the chipmaker is in a prime position in the semiconductor market. Cryptocurrencies, specifically crypto-mining, is one of the hottest trends in consumer technologies. People are buying graphics cards left and right, even if they may not know what they’re doing.
Furthermore, video gaming continues to be a lucrative commodity, and it’s only getting more profitable. Yesterday’s Nintendo Co., Ltd (ADR) (OTCMKTS:NTDOY) console playing “losers” are today’s bona fide celebrities. Advanced Micro Devices stock should be soaring, but it’s not. Our own Dana Blankenhorn explains:
AMD’s real problem is getting enough of its Ryzen chips and enough of its Radeon graphics processors produced to meet with skyrocketing demand from cryptocurrency miners, gamers and artificial intelligence.
AMD stock has lost 17% of its value over the last year, while Intel is up almost 42%, because Intel owns its own fabrication plants and can quickly expand production, while AMD is “fabless” and must depend on partners. Even if AMD designs are better than Intel’s, it will always be production-constrained.
In other words, the fundamentals matter. Maybe not so much in prior years, but when you’re no longer making triple-digit returns, investors start to look under the hood.
Don’t Count Out Advanced Micro Devices Stock
Obviously, many AMD analysts are shifting towards the bearish argument because it’s the easy thing to do. Since January-end, AMD stock has cratered 24%. Why wouldn’t you abandon ship?
Truth be told, if this were any other company, I’d smash the sell button. But two things prevent me from making a rash move. First, cryptocurrencies remain a huge tailwind for Advanced Micro Devices stock. Never mind that management downplays the crypto craze, or that bitcoin has been volatile over the past few weeks. The cat’s out of the bag, folks! Cryptocurrencies are here to say, whether you like them or not.
Therefore, I see tremendous upside in crypto-mining-centric GPUs, and for that, AMD is tops. Sure, Nvidia offers the superior equipment. However, they’re far pricier than their AMD counterparts. And let’s not forget that mining requires GPU stacking; having just one doesn’t cut it anymore.
When you start multiplying a GPU’s list price by a factor of six, you can see just how expensive mining can be. No wonder AMD-powered graphics cards were the top two most popular crypto-mining products last year.
This segues into my second point: Advanced Micro Devices stock is resilient as heck. I previously thought that the fundamentals would catch up to the company. Perhaps they will. But, so far, the positives have outweighed the negatives, at least in the shareholders’ minds.
When it comes to AMD stock, that’s all that matters. Make no mistake: it’s a risky proposition gambling on others’ perception. However, at this juncture, I’d give the slight edge to AMD.
As of this writing, Josh Enomoto is long bitcoin.
