Thursday’s Vital Data: Amazon, Square and Microsoft

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U.S. stock futures are pointing toward a lower open this morning. Wall Street appears to be taking a breather following a four-day rally into record high territory. Additionally, trading could be light today as U.S. markets are on break for the Labor Day holiday on Monday.

stock market todayHeading into the open, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average are down 0.23%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures are also lower, each slipping 0.13%.

In the options pits, activity returned to some sense of normalcy as traders prepared for a holiday break. About 19.6 million calls and 15.1 million puts changed hands on the session. On the CBOE, the single-session equity put/call volume ratio rose for a third-straight session, hitting 0.55. Still, the 10-day moving average extended it’s decline, hitting yet another two-month low of 0.58 as overall optimism continues to rise.

Options traders zeroed in on analyst actions on Wednesday. Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Square (NYSE:SQ) were among the most popular with call options traders following price target increases. Microsoft (NYSE:MSFT) saw call adds on speculation the company would increase its dividend in a big way.

Let’s take a closer look:

Thursday’s Vital Options Data: Amazon, Square and Microsoft

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

Morgan Stanley now has the highest price target on Wall Street when it comes to AMZN stock. The brokerage boosted its target to $2,500 from $1,800 yesterday.

“We have increasing confidence that Amazon’s rapidly growing, increasingly large, high margin revenue streams (advertising, AWS, subscriptions) will drive higher profitability and continued upward estimate revisions,” Morgan Stanley said in a research note.

Options volume was brisk and unusually call heavy for Amazon as a result of the boost. More than 441,000 contracts traded on AMZN stock yesterday, more than doubling the stock’s daily average. Calls made up 61% of this activity.

By contrast, the September put/call open interest ratio comes in at 1.31. This high ratio indicates a heavy presence of put contracts in the front month AMZN options series. As Amazon edges nearer to becoming the second $1 trillion U.S. company, we could see yesterday’s bullish activity pick up considerably.

Square (SQ)

Square also saw a spike in call activity following its brush with the brokerage community. Yesterday, Guggenheim lifted its price target on SQ stock to $100 from $75 and named Square the “best idea” in fintech. The ratings firm also called Square its “highest conviction name” in the sector.

“We expect a strong rate of revenue growth for SQ which should drive further share price appreciation,” Guggenheim said in a note.

SQ stock has been a hot topic for speculative options traders for some time now. It’s easy to understand, as SQ has gained more than 220% in the past year. Yesterday, many SQ bulls doubled down, as calls made up 60% of the more than 193,000 contracts traded on the stock. Volume surged to more than three times SQ’s daily average.

That said, many SQ stock options traders are nowhere near as bullish as yesterday’s activity lets on. For instance, the September put/call OI ratio rests at 1.60, with put open interest far exceeding call OI for the series. SQ options traders are either expecting a reversal or are in full protection mode, as peak put OI rests at the $70 and $50 strikes in September.

Microsoft (MSFT)

Dividend speculation ramped up on Microsoft yesterday. The company has historically announced a dividend increase in mid-September, and Morgan Stanley believes this one could surprise many investors.

Morgan Stanley sees “a high probability of a larger-than-average increase in the dividend” due to the more than $130 billion in offshore cash freed up by this year’s tax code changes. Additionally, Microsoft’s 20% earnings growth in fiscal 2018 could also be an impetus for a larger than expected dividend increase.

While true dividend speculation (i.e., dividend capture plays) won’t begin until the week before Microsoft’s ex-dividend date, options traders were in the thick of things with MSFT yesterday. Volume rose to 180,000 contracts, and calls made up an above average 68% of the day’s take.

The theme of options trader trepidation holds with MSFT as well today. The stock’s September put/call OI ratio comes in at 0.96, with calls and puts nearly even for the series. After Microsoft’s run higher in August, some options traders may be protecting against short-term profit taking.

As of this writing, Joseph Hargett held no position in any of the aforementioned equities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/08/thursdays-vital-data-options-amazon-square-and-microsoft/.

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