3 Semiconductor Stocks With Explosive Potential

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semiconductor stocks - 3 Semiconductor Stocks With Explosive Potential

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Semiconductor stocks have been on fire. Thanks to the widespread proliferation of technology, demand for chips and various semiconductor equipment has burgeoned to unprecedented highs over the past several years. As that demand has boomed, semiconductors have boomed, too. Over the past three years, the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (NYSEARCA:SMH) is up 120%. By comparison, the S&P 500 is up just 50%.

Clearly, semiconductor stocks have been a winning investment.

This will remain true for the foreseeable future. Supply and demand determine everything in the semiconductor world. As a bull, you want high demand and low supply, because that inflates chip prices and pushes margins higher. The past few years have been characterized by sky-high demand and minimal supply. Supply is finally starting to build out, but demand will continue to outstrip supply for the foreseeable future because of huge and still growing demand from end-markets like cloud data-centers, AI, automation, self-driving, AR/VR, smartphones, so on and so forth.

Thus, huge demand will continue to power semiconductor stocks higher for the foreseeable future.

The virtue of being a semiconductor company doesn’t necessarily mean that company will be treated like the top semiconductor stocks — some will be bigger beneficiaries than others. These three semiconductor stocks, for instance, are due for explosive gains over the next several years:

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Nvidia (NVDA)

When it comes to semiconductor stocks, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is in a class of its own. Chip stocks are winning investments because of their exposure to multiple data-centric and next-gen markets like data-centers, artificial intelligence (AI), automation, Internet of Things (IoT) and augmented reality (AR)/virtual reality (VR). When it comes to these markets, no chip stock has as much exposure or is as dominant as Nvidia. That is why NVDA stock has gained more than 1,000% over the past three years.

It is also why this stock is set to rally even further over the next three years, too.

All of the markets Nvidia is servicing are still in the early innings of their long-term growth narratives, and that means Nvidia is in the early innings of its growth narrative, too. The global data center market is expected to grow somewhere between 10% and 20% over the next several years. IoT is projected to be a 25%-plus growth market over the next several years. Autonomous driving is pegged as a 40% to 60% annualized growth market over the next several years. IDC thinks the AR/VR market will grow at a 50%-plus rate over the next five years.

Nvidia has ample exposure to all of those markets. In this sense, Nvidia makes the chips that power tomorrow’s biggest growth markets. That gives NVDA stock both a big and diverse multiyear growth trajectory.

Sure, the stock is expensive. It trades at 36X forward earnings. But, if looking at the growth rates for Nvidia’s addressable markets, you are talking about ~35% growth. Assuming some margin expansion, that implies earnings growth in excess of 35%. A 36X multiple isn’t all that expensive for 35%-plus projected earnings growth. In fact, some may even consider it cheap.

Overall, over the next several years, NVDA stock will continue to be a winner as an investment into AI, data-centers and automation accelerate, allowing this stock to grow into its valuation.

Intel (INTC)

When it comes to Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) stock, there is a big picture story and a small picture story. Both of these stories are important to pay attention to, and both will provide upward momentum for this stock in the medium to long-term.

In the big picture, Intel is making a huge shift from a PC-centric business to a data-centric business. Intel morphed into $220 billion semiconductor giant by dominating the PC industry. But, as we all know, the PC industry is tapped out. Everyone who wants a PC, already has one. Realizing this, Intel made a huge shift in 2018 from focusing on PCs to focusing on data-centers and other growing next-gen markets.

That was a smart move. Intel turned its dominance in the PC market into dominance in many data-centric markets. That provided a lift to everything at Intel. Revenues went up. Revenue growth accelerated. Margins expanded. Profits soared. And, importantly, INTC stock flew to new highs.

This big-picture narrative remains strong today. Intel continues to build out its data-centric businesses, and as those businesses continue to gain traction in critical high-growth markets, Intel’s overall metrics will dramatically improve. Such improvements will inevitably push INTC stock higher in the long run.

The near-term, however, has been choppy. That is because of a small picture narrative which has weighed on investor sentiment and near-term outlook. Long story short, Intel has struggled with next-gen server chip production, while competitors haven’t. That means that competitors have next-gen chips ready to go, while Intel is still a few quarters out from volume production. Thus, the consensus fear is that competitors will steal important and high-growth server market share from Intel.

But, this small picture narrative appears to be changing for the better. Intel got in this situation because it kept delaying 10nm volume chip production due to production hiccups. But, in its most recent supply update, the company said yields are improving and volume production is still expected in 2019. In other words, Intel didn’t delay production.

That is a big shift. It means Intel is back on track, and that any market share gains from competitors will likely be short-lived. As such, now seems like the time to buy the dip in Intel stock as this small picture narrative changes course, and eventually converges on the bullish big picture narrative.

Why AMD Stock Will Rally Before Its Earnings Announcement

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

The hottest chip stock in 2018 has been Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD). AMD stock is up 200% in 2018 alone. Why the big rally? Market share gains. While Intel is struggling with next-gen chip production, AMD is not. The company has its next-gen chips ready to go. That means that over the next twelve months, before Intel launches next-gen chips en masse, AMD is running in open fields and has a tremendous opportunity to grow server market share.

Last year, the company controlled less than a percent of that server market. The consensus thesis is that due to a lack of viable Intel competition, AMD could grow market share to 10% or more by the end of 2019.

Such gains would be huge for AMD. Even after the 200% YTD rally, AMD’s market is still just $30 billion. Nvidia has a $180 billion market cap. Intel has a $220 billion market cap. Thus, if AMD can successfully morph into a viable Intel/Nvidia competitor through a suite of new products, the company’s $30 billion valuation still seems anemic. In that scenario, AMD could have an “Nvidia” moment, and explode from a $30 billion market cap to a $100 billion-plus market cap rather quickly (Nvidia did this in 2016-17 thanks to new products).

Will this huge run actually materialize for AMD stock? Perhaps. It does look like AMD is gaining share where it matters. And, as end-markets like data-centers and AI grow, it only makes sense for a third big player to emerge in this market. I don’t think AMD will ever get to Intel or Nvidia size. But, this company can realistically turn into a very viable “third wheel” in the market, and in that scenario, projections for a market cap of $50 billion and up, in the long run, seem reasonable.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long Nvidia and Intel stock.  


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/10/3-semiconductor-stocks-with-explosive-potential/.

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