Comcast Stock Is Probably Facing Too Many Severe Headwinds

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Comcast stock - Comcast Stock Is Probably Facing Too Many Severe Headwinds

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Receiving sharp criticism from President Trump isn’t necessarily negative for companies and stocks. After all, business tycoons, world leaders, and even celebrities have all incurred his wrath. Unfortunately, Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) stock is apparently one of the rare entities that can be hurt by the president’s criticisms. After Trump, in a statement on Twitter, cited accusations of antitrust activity that have been made against Comcast, Comcast stock took a hit.

Granted, the actual decline wasn’t terrible. CMCSA stock gave up less than 1% yesterday. However, the pullback did halt Comcast stock’s rally that began at the end of October. Unlike one of its rivals, Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS), CMCSA stock remains in negative territory for this year.

The most worrisome development for Comcast stock is not the tweet, but antitrust allegations  leveled against it by the American Cable Association (ACA), an advocacy group representing midsize cable operators. The ACA has asked the DOJ to investigate CMCSA, and Fox Business reported that “pressure is mounting” on DOJ to probe the cable provider. Among the ACA’s key accusations is that CMCSA rendered “substantial competitive harm” to consumers.

President Trump relished the opportunity to indirectly blast Comcast, which owns one of his more prominent critics, NBC News. Trump included in his tweet a quote from Fox Business’ Charlie Gasparino which asserted that CMCSA’s actions “have much more potential for damage to consumers” than AT&T’s (NYSE:T) acquisition of Time Warner .

While Comcast’s critics have a point, it’s difficult not to notice that Trump has his own personal reasons for wanting Comcast stock to stumble. After all, as noted earlier, NBC News, which runs liberal news station MNBC, has been sharply critical of Trump, and the President has routinely attacked NBC and other left-leaning mainstream media outlets as “fake news.”

With Comcast potentially facing a serious antitrust investigation and having been the target of the president’s wrath, should you dump CMCSA stock now?

Now Is Not the Ideal Time to Gamble on Comcast Stock

I must admit that I haven’t been a fan of Comcast stock relative to other media stocks for some time. After hearing about the antitrust allegations, I can’t say that my confidence has increased.

For one thing, Trump’s tweet heavily impacted Comcast stock. Prior to “The Donald” opening his stream of consciousness, CMCSA stock was actually enjoying a solid Monday session.

Given the reaction of CMCSA stock, I’m worried that if an antitrust probe is launched, the President will harshly criticize CMCSA and cause Comcast stock to drop further. It’s worth mentioning that, according to FoxBusiness.com, Trump has privately labeled CMCSA as “Public Enemy No. 1.” He has also promised to disrupt big media’s attempts to consolidate.

Just as importantly, the investigators in this case are extremely motivated to slam Comcast, and by logical extension, Comcast stock. The ACA directly appealed to the Assistant Attorney General for the Antitrust Division, Makan Delrahim, who is a notorious antitrust hawk. Under Delrahim, the DOJ opposed the AT&T-Time Warner deal, citing competitive concerns.

Another headwind for CMCSA stock is the fact that Comcast’s buyout of NBC Universal in early 2011 was a vertical merger. In a vertical merger, an organization buys a business that is involved in a different stage of a particular supply chain. In this case, NBC,a content producer, was acquired by Comcast, a content distributor.

The AT&T-Time Warner deal was also a vertical merger. But Comcast, which owns 11 local news channels and seven regional sports networks, controls much more content than AT&T. As a result, it’s much easier for CMCSA to essentially bully smaller competitors out of the arena.

The ACA asserts exactly that, claiming Comcast has withheld highly popular programming from local TV stations. And because CMCSA owns so many cable TV franchises, it can also raise prices arbitrarily or refuse to broadcast specific channels.

CMCSA Stock Faces Underappreciated Political Pressure

One angle that the media hasn’t covered extensively regarding Comcast is that supporters of both parties oppose violations of antitrust laws. Very few people in either party clamor for large-scale corporate consolidations. Historically, most Americans have been suspicious of big business and big government.

President Trump can use that sentiment to his advantage. Rather than seeking consensus on boring issues like infrastructure, he can hunt down greedy corporations that are hurting consumers. Of course, you can say that such a position by Trump would be disingenuous, but it’s still a compelling issue for him.

Plus, as I mentioned before, Trump wants to see Comcast stock fall for personal reasons. He doesn’t like fake news, but more importantly, he holds grudges in perpetuity. Trump wants to settle the score with NBC, which, in addition to owning MSNBC, released the “Access Hollywood” tape that almost derailed his presidential campaign.

When the world’s most powerful person hates your investment, you should probably drop it from your portfolio. After the antitrust allegations are added to the mix, Comcast stock quickly loses whatever charm it once had.

As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare. Tweet him at @EnomotoMedia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/11/comcast-stock-is-probably-facing-too-many-severe-headwinds/.

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