Crypto Watch: Which Coins to Buy, Sell, or Hold in the Wake of Bitcoin’s Halving

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  • Bitcoin (BTC-USD): Bitcoin’s broken chart pattern warrants prudent engagement.
  • Ethereum (ETH-USD): Ethereum appears to be impacted by pessimism in the sector.
  • Tether (USDT-USD): Tether’s bearish on-chain signals warrant a careful approach.
  • Cryptos have held up well post-halving but the future presents an ambiguous framework.
cryptos - Crypto Watch: Which Coins to Buy, Sell, or Hold in the Wake of Bitcoin’s Halving

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With the benchmark blockchain asset having completed its halving, the narrative for cryptos has become even more intriguing. On an elemental level, the original virtual currency should rise higher based on a simple equation: less supply, more demand. However, the blockchain ecosystem is rarely that straightforward.

Sure, the bullish angle seems to make the most since. Cryptos aren’t just rising based on a single event by one particular decentralized digital asset. Rather, more mainstream investors – especially institutional ones – are recognizing the opportunity in virtual currencies. With exchange-traded funds covering the space, crypto adoption is at an all-time high.

On the other hand, it’s worth consider the bearish case, as The Block recently pointed out. In particular, mining enterprises face fresh challenges due to the reduced supply of the original crypto. Many just might go out of business. If that happens, we would see less network participation, opening the door to one entity controlling a majority of the network: the dreaded 51% attack.

That’s unlikely to happen but the probability isn’t zero. With that in mind, you want to be prudent with your decision making. Here are seven cryptos to watch.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD)

Up trend Technical graph of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) in futuristic concept, BITI ETF is a Bitcoin short fund for investors betting against Bitcoin.
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With Bitcoin (BTC-USD) completing its halving event, the benchmark blockchain asset finds itself trading at just under $67,000 late Monday night. The choppiness isn’t particularly surprising when you consider the age-old adage: buy the rumor, sell the news. BTC has held up well, no doubt. However, it’s also conspicuous that it’s below the record price of nearly $74,000.

Now the question is, where will Bitcoin go next? If may be blunt, I’m not liking the current technical posture. Previously, I stated that BTC appeared to be forming a bullish pennant formation. However, the development of this pattern appeared to break down beginning around April 12. The pronounced drop on April 17 makes it difficult to ascertain if a legitimate pattern exists.

At the same time, it’s noteworthy that Bitcoin has had trouble moving past its 50-day moving average. As well, acquisition volume has been declining since late February. With geopolitical uncertainty clouding the broader narrative, it may be best to trim some exposure.

I’m not suggesting selling out of BTC completely. However, it may be prudent to take some of your earlier profits so that you have something in the bag.

Ethereum (ETH-USD)

Etereum coin is in pocket. Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source blockchain with smart contract functionality. ETH crypto
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While cryptos were focused on Bitcoin and its halving event, Ethereum (ETH-USD) being the second-most valuable digital asset commands relevance. In the near term and without broader context, ETH looks decent. In the past 24 hours, the crypto coin gained over 2% of market value. Over the trailing seven days, it moved up nearly 5%.

Still, compared to the wider picture, Ethereum has been disappointing. There’s no other way to put it. Early last month, ETH units were trading hands at over $4,000. However, this lofty status didn’t last long. Still, with the baseline price trading around the $3,500 level, there was hope that the bulls could charge ahead.

Previously, I stated that ETH appeared to print an ugly bullish pennant. However, the sharp decline of the April 12 session and the subsequent weak response puts this thesis in doubt. Based on data from StockCharts, it seems that acquisition volume has been fading since January of this year.

Given the weakness in cryptos, I would consider trimming some exposure into strength. Ethereum’s inability to decisively swing past its 20-day exponential moving average only compounds skepticism.

Tether (USDT-USD)

A concept token for the Tether cryptocurrency.
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At the moment, the benchmark stablecoin Tether (USDT-USD) trades at perfect parity with the dollar. So, it’s not really giving a signal one way or the other about the broader health of cryptos. That said, it’s notable that over the past seven days, most of USDT’s price action occurred above the parity line. Subsequently, it appears that traders trust virtual currencies over fiat currencies.

That’s a positive development for blockchain advocates. However, it remains to be seen whether the dynamic will sustain itself. What stands out – in a not-so-encouraging way – is that USDT fell significantly below its one-to-one peg with the greenback over the past week; first on March 27 and second on April 12.

Looking ahead, circumstances don’t seem to bode well for Tether. According to on-chain signals provided by TipRanks, the consensus for USDT is mostly bearish. Further, when it comes to the key metrics of net network growth, the volume of profitable traders, concentration of large holders and the number of big transactions, all stats rate pessimistically.

Translation? Investors should be vigilant with cryptos and take some profits when it makes sense to do so.

BNB (BNB-USD)

Binance (BNB-USD) logo displayed on a pile of altcoins. BNB price predictions.
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While the virtual currency ecosystem faces ambiguities, BNB (BNB-USD) represents one of the rarer cryptos that look somewhat appealing. In the past seven days, BNB gained over 10% of market value. That could boost confidence for other blockchain assets though it’s still best to be cautious.

From March 6 through April 10, BNB appeared to be charting a garden-variety bullish pennant formation. However, mimicking other cryptos, the digital asset began stumbling in the following session. By April 17, it had dropped to an intraday low of $513.93, effectively breaking the pennant’s shape. Ordinarily, that would be pessimistic. However, a bounce back from April 18 onward may represent a bid to save the rally.

What makes BNB all the more compelling is that it trades above key technical benchmarks, such as the 20-day exponential moving average, the 50 DMA and the 200 DMA. So long as the bulls continue to support the decentralized asset, it has a chance to continue marching northward.

Nevertheless, I’m not too keen on the fading acquisition volume since the March 13 session. So, even with BNB, I wouldn’t be against trimming some exposure.

Solana (SOL-USD)

Solana Coin (SOL-USD) in front of the Solana logo. Solana price predictions.
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One of the hottest cryptos not named Bitcoin, Solana (SOL-USD) has lost some of its earlier edge. Still, from a near-term perspective, the bulls are attempting to right the ship. Over the past 24 hours, SOL gained 4%. In the trailing seven days, it’s up more than 15%. That’s the good news. But believe it or not, there’s also some bad news associated with this rally.

I don’t mean to cast aspersions but when looked at in a broader context, SOL’s jump higher is more emblematic of a “desperation” move. You see, from the April 12 session onward, sizable volatility pushed the price down worryingly. On April 17, the asset fell to an intraday low of $126.91 before bouncing higher. Unfortunately, its 20-day exponential moving average appears to act as upside resistance.

Even if Solana manages to move past this barrier, the 50 DMA – at $167.57 – will likely frustrate the bulls. Overall, the price action (or chart behavior if you will) of Solana appears broken. Ideally, the bulls need to quickly push the price back up to $175 to avoid further damage.

It could happen – it’s just that it also wouldn’t be a bad idea to take some profits here.

XRP (XRP-USD)

A concept image for the XRP (XRP-USD) token from Ripple.
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A frustrating digital asset, XRP (XRP-USD) continues to confound stakeholders. Previously, XRP appeared to get its chart pattern of rising lows back on track after a major disruption early this year. Unfortunately, the token again suffered a severe bout of volatility, this time on April 12. The next day, XRP fell to an intraday low of 43.1 cents before the bulls attempted a recovery.

That’s the context behind the strong near-term performance. In the past 24 hours, XRP gained almost 3% of market value. Over the trailing week, it moved up almost 13%. By themselves, they sound like amazing statistics. Unfortunately, as stated earlier, the price action is more reflective of a desperation response than anything else.

Now, a bit of decent news is that XRP trades above its 20-day exponential moving average. However, it’s still below its 200 DMA (58 cents) and 50 DMA (60 cents). Frankly, I’m concerned about XRP. If bullish sentiment in other cryptos fail, XRP could be in for some trouble. Watch this space carefully and be prepared to trim some of your holdings.

Dogecoin (DOGE-USD)

One Golden Dogecoin Coin on keyboard, Meme coins to sell
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In what could be the ultimate Rorschach test, Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) may hold the clue as to where cryptos may go next. Looking at its chart pattern from late February to the present day, there appear to be two possible interpretations. Let’s start with the negative one first.

From a pessimistic vantagepoint, DOGE could be charting a broken head-and-shoulders pattern. The two shoulders could be represented by the pops culminating on March 11 and April 20. Further, the head could be represented by the top-line price seen during the March 28 and March 31 sessions. As you probably know, head and shoulders imply a negative outcome.

On the other hand, the bullish swing between Feb. 26 and March 4 could represent a flagpole. Subsequent trading could be a consolidation phase. Once the consolidation is over, XRP could potentially rocket higher.

If the optimistic outlook were to materialize, though, it would need to happen fairly soon. Also, the acquisition volume would need to be robust. Otherwise, the pop could end up being a head fake. With skepticism weighing on global markets, it might make more sense to go the conservative approach.

On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto held a LONG position in BTC, ETH, USDT and XRP. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare. Tweet him at @EnomotoMedia.


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