Micron Technology, Inc. Is Flying High, But It Can Go Higher

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Previously ridiculed, the vast technology sector is currently enjoying a renaissance. Over the last two years, companies like Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) have emerged as market favorites. Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) in particular benefited strongly from the shift in sentiment. After a disastrous 2015, MU stock has a great chance of securing triple-digit returns in 2017.

At the same time, investors undoubtedly have concerns about moving too far for too long. Micron Technologies, MU stockLast year, the MU stock price gained 53%. Not only are shares on pace to double that return, since the second half of this year, MU gained 52%. Arguably, in the absence of truly remarkable Micron Technology news, the current rally may seem suspect to some.

Moreover, the tech sector overall is overheated. The benchmark exchange-traded fund Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLK) is well into overbought territory, which could spark individual corrections. A prime example is AMD, which started the year strongly but is currently down 2%.

From a trading standpoint, anything is possible. However, the primary difference between MU stock and lesser names is that Micron is a classic case of a good company falling into rough circumstances. Across the board, its financials are rock solid. However, in certain critical metrics, such as profitability margins, MU is among the leaders in the global semiconductor industry.

These aren’t just fluff numbers, as InvestorPlace writer Tom Taulli asserts. He writes:

“Even with the run-up in MU stock, the valuation remains fairly cheap. Consider that the forward price-to-earnings ratio is only about 6.6X.  Perhaps this is why notable value investors have been buying up shares in MU stock, such as Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn.”

I’m not the biggest fan of the P/E ratio, due to it being misunderstood. Still, the entire context makes Micron believable.

MU Stock Making Headway

Of course, without a substantive catalyst for future growth, investors risk holding a worthless bag. In addition, InvestorPlace writer James Brumley notes that the memory card sector has endured multiple boom-bust cycles. Obviously, it’s critical for new buyers that for where the MU stock price is now, the industry doesn’t face another one of these cycles.

But catching up on the latest Micron Technology news, the growth argument is very much real. In the second quarter of this year, the company hauled in $925 million from its mobile DRAM business. This represented a significant leap over its Q2 2016 total, which registered $449 million. In fact, going back to at least Q1 2012, this is an all-time record for MU.

More significantly, the mobile DRAM sales as a whole more than tripled over the past five years. In other words, the MU stock price is benefitting from a rising tide lifting all boats.

The kicker, though, is that Micron benefits at a greater rate than sector kings Samsung Electronics (OTCMKTS:SSNLF) and SK Hynix. For instance, in Q2 2016, MU market share was 11.4%. A year later, that figure jumped to nearly 15%. On the flipside, Samsung’s and SK Hynix’s combined market share declined from almost 87% to a little over 83%.

Eating away at the competition is a strong justification for the ever-rising MU stock price. But Brumley makes another compelling argument: The memory card supply glut that killed the industry years ago likely won’t repeat for the foreseeable future. To his point, Samsung and SK Hynix are the only serious DRAM providers. Rather than an excess, we may have a shortage.

Essentially, not only is MU making significant headway against its rivals, the broader technology market is pushing them forward.

Don’t Overthink the MU Stock Price

Finally, on the technical front, I don’t see evidence of an imminent decline in the MU stock price. Yes, Micron has tremendous momentum, but momentum alone doesn’t determine a future correction. Moreover, trading volume is stable compared to previous years, suggesting no wild or unusually speculative activities.

Before pulling the plug on a company, I’d like to at least see two things: a failure for shares to beat prior peaks and a fundamentally worrisome liability or vulnerability. Obviously, the chart pattern for the MU stock price is robust, ruling out a technical failure. And the Micron Technology news stream lacks any deal-breakers or red flags.

Until those warning signs appear (and that may be a while), you can confidently add to your MU position.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare. Tweet him at @EnomotoMedia.

As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/11/micron-technology-inc-mu-stock-can-go-higher/.

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