Winning the Cloud War Is Not the Best Reason to Buy Amazon Stock

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Amazon stock - Winning the Cloud War Is Not the Best Reason to Buy Amazon Stock

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Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) clearly has deep ecommerce roots. But, there’s far more to the company now than just online retailing. The gains Amazon stock has dished out in recent years have largely been driven by the advent and growth of its Amazon Web Services arm, or AWS, for short.

Still, as much of a fiscal benefit AWS may offer Amazon stock, it’s hardly the only major cloud computing service provider out there. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has seen tremendous demand for its Azure cloud computing interface, and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL, NASDAQ:GOOG) has quietly leveraged the Google Cloud platform into a respectable profit center.

But what might the difference between these cloud computing services mean to current and prospective owners of Amazon stock (or owners of GOOG or MSFT, for that matter)? Quite a bit, but be careful about jumping to one-dimensional conclusions.

Leading the Pack

In the most superficial sense, Amazon appears to be winning the cloud war. Goldman Sachs predicted late last year that AWS would account for 48% of the public cloud market by 2019, up from 42% last year. The numbers loosely jibe with estimates from Canalys, which suggested earlier this year that Amazon’s share of the cloud market is closer to 30%.

In both cases, however, there’s one clear commonality… AWS is still miles ahead of Microsoft in terms of cloud infrastructure revenue, and Microsoft is miles ahead of Google.

That doesn’t inherently make Amazon stock the most viable way of tapping into the rise of cloud computing though. On the other hand, it certainly doesn’t preclude the possibility.

Probably the Most Profitable

Investors searching for hard data on just how profitable cloud computing is for the dominant names in the business will be sorely disappointed.

In February of this year, for the first time ever, Alphabet disclosed that cloud computing revenue for the fourth quarter of last year reached $1 billion. No other metrics were provided by Alphabet about Google Cloud, but it’s unlikely to be a profitable venture.

Microsoft’s cloud profits aren’t quite obscured, though they do require some number-crunching for only a little more data.

Its recent earnings presentation revealed that the previous quarter’s commercial cloud arm produced $6.9 billion in revenue and boasted gross margins of 58%. That’s roughly $4 billion, though it still doesn’t fully indicate just how successful its cloud business is in terms of its actual contribution to the bottom line.

Amazon’s cloud picture is clearer still. While the math doesn’t factor in company-wide expenses like payroll costs or interest payments on debt, AWS turned $6.1 billion worth of revenue into an operating profit of $1.6 billion in the second quarter of this year. From a sheer transparency standpoint, Amazon deserves the lion’s share of credit.

There’s a nuance here, however, that should shake up the oversimplified comparisons of AWS, Google Cloud and Azure.

Not Apples to Apples

All cloud computing infrastructure and platform providers overlap to some degree. But, each takes aim at a slightly different market with a slightly different focus. And in some cases, ‘slightly’ can be replaced with ‘significantly.’

Take Microsoft for instance. Its cloud arm is ultimately all about Azure, which is ultimately about effective management of data for enterprise-level users.

Google Cloud is a beast of a different color, largely intended to encourage the use of Google’s other revenue-bearing offers. Coders who need the containerization allowed by Kubernetes technologies, and app developers in particular, most likely will choose Google.

Oh, and it just so happens Google manages a huge app-download service.

AWS, meanwhile, offers a little of everything to everyone, but is arguably the leader in terms of raw storage. Its EC2 compute technology is regarded by some as the best of breed, and Amazon’s scaling and load-balancing options are top-notch. Amazon also boasts the most data centers, allowing it to eliminate latency caused by geography.

There’s a market for each supplier’s specialty, and though it’s a rarity, it’s certainly not inconceivable that a user would want services from all three providers.

Bottom Line for Amazon Stock

And there’s the rub. While professional analysts and amateur investors alike have developed the habit of comparing one provider to another, that’s not a practice with a particularly high payoff. The three big names in the business as well all the other smaller players sport as many differences as similarities.

And yet, somehow, Amazon stock is (almost) the decisive go-to way of investing in the advent of cloud computing. Transparency means a lot, and though such a maneuver seems unlikely, Amazon.com is closer than any other company is to spinning off its cloud computing business. That would be the focused investment many investors wish were actually an option.

Just don’t jump to the conclusion that other companies aren’t driving just as much success with their take on the young cloud computing market.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/10/winning-cloud-war-amazon-stock/.

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