3 Reasons to Be Bullish on GE Stock Ahead of Earnings

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When it comes to stock-picking in general and General Electric (NYSE:GE) stock in particular, number crunching isn’t the end-all, be-all.

Number crunching would not have predicted in 2010 that Amazon (NYSE:AMZN) would be generating large profits in a few years. It wouldn’t have predicted in 2000 that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) would soon become a tech powerhouse. And the number crunchers didn’t predict the recent resurgence of solar stocks or the imminent return to profitability of Fitbit (NASDAQ:FIT)and BlackBerry (NYSE:BB).

Financial data is certainly an important part of stock picking, but in recent years, Wall Street has been overly focused on the numbers and has largely ignored SWOT (strength, weakness, opportunity,threat) analysis, which is just as, if not more important, as number crunching.

When analyzing GE stock recently, much of the Street has appeared to be focusing only on the numbers and has been ignoring the company’s strengths and opportunities. Specifically, the company is a leader in two sectors with powerful growth catalysts (electricity and aviation), and it has a new CEO with a great track record.

Moreover, although the company is facing staggering debt and some important “known unknowns,” its short-term financial issues may not be that insurmountable. Therefore, although GE stock is more suited for long-term speculators than conservative investors at this point, it does look like a good speculative bet.

Here are three reasons to be bullish on GE stock as the company prepares to report its fourth-quarter results tomorrow, January 31, before the market opens.

#1 GE Is a Leader in Two Strong Sectors

The success of GE’s aviation unit speaks for itself. In the first three quarters of 2018, the unit’s orders surged 35% year-over-year to $26.7 billion and its profit jumped 25% to $1.665 billion. Meanwhile, aerospace markets look likely to continue their strength as developing economies add many more aircraft and most airlines in the developed world continue to be profitable. If GE’s Q4 results show that the unit continued to be strong, the owners of GE stock should be encouraged by that ongoing trend.

Meanwhile, as I’ve written multiple times in the past, GE’s Power unit looks poised to strengthen from increased demand for electricity. As electricity demand increases, more power stations will have to be built, and that will require more of GE’s equipment.

And despite worries that natural gas will be supplanted by the growth of solar energy, hurting GE’s gas turbine business and GE stock, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects electricity generated by natural gas to rise to 4.028 trillion kWh per day this year — up from 4.016 trillion in 2018. The trend is expected to continue next year, when natural gas is anticipated to generate 4.164 trillion kWh per day.

And although EIA expects U.S. electricity demand to drop slightly this year due to a relatively cool summer, world electricity usage continues to trend upward, and many predict that U.S. electricity demand will rise over the longer term. Moreover, as I’ve pointed out in the past, in certain areas, such as California and China, large-scale use of electric cars will force utilities to enhance their power stations.

As I noted in my January 10 column on GE stock:

“Mechanical difficulties with GE’s turbines may actually have been what caused the unit’s woes. Culp’s decision to name John Rice, a retired GE vice chairman, to oversee the troubled unit, could very well help improve the division’s results.”

Additionally, CEO H. Lawrence Culp Jr. has said in November that the unit is “getting close to a bottom.” Tomorrow, the owners of GE stock should pay close attention to and analyze any plans and guidance for the power unit.

#2 The Known, Near-Term Financial Issues Look Solvable

As I noted in my previous column:

“If GE is able to clear $15 billion from the healthcare unit IPO, $9 billion from its jet-leasing sale, and $5 billion from the slated sale of its Baker Hughes stake, it will have raised $25 billion of cash. Suddenly, the $26 billion of bond payments that the company must make over the next two years doesn’t seem so steep.”

Some analysts, however, have recently focused on the “known unknowns” and on speculation involving GE’s asset sales to support their bearish views on GE stock.

For example, in a well-publicized note issued last week, J.P. Morgan analyst Stephen Tusa said that this month’s rally of GE stock stemmed from “hope.” The analyst speculated that GE would receive much less than $40 billion for its jet-leasing business, which is the amount that Bloomberg had reported was under discussion. According to MarketWatch, the analyst also wrote that any deal for the unit “would ‘wipe out’ all of [the unit’s] equity, which he already estimates to be zero to GE shareholders on a cash basis.”

Also issuing a negative note on GE stock recently was Gordon Haskett analyst John Inch, who said that GE stock could have a negative value after GE sells the assets it’s planning to unload. Like J.P. Morgan’s Tusa, Inch’s note is based on speculation about GE’s asset sales. Inch also focuses on the company’s total debt, which he estimates at $144 billion to $203 billion.

I think it’s more practical to focus on the value of the company’s bonds through 2020, which seems to have been reliably pegged at a manageable $26 billion. Longer-term debt and other liabilities — like pensions — could be renegotiated, especially if the company’s business is performing pretty well, making all creditors convinced that GE will remain solvent.

#3 The New CEO

Larry Culp, GE’s new CEO, had a stellar turnaround record as CEO of Danaher (NYSE:DHR), where he “more than quintupled the company’s market value and revenues” during his time at the helm of the conglomerate. Obviously, the man knows what he’s doing when it comes to managing and improving large companies. Importantly, he is also an expert in and proponent of a system called the Toyota Production System that could really boost GE’s profits and GE stock by reducing the company’s waste.

The Bottom Line on GE Stock

GE is highly leveraged to two sectors with powerful growth catalysts: electricity production and aviation. GE’s main near-term and medium-term financial problems seem manageable, and it has a CEO with a stellar track record who’s also an expert at reducing waste.

Although the company’s possible financial difficulties make GE stock unsuitable for conservative investors, it’s a good name for investors who want to speculate on a company that has an excellent chance of making a huge comeback.

As of this writing, the author owned shares of BlackBerry and Fitbit.

Larry Ramer has conducted research and written articles on U.S. stocks for 15 years. He has been employed by The Fly and Israel’s largest business newspaper, Globes. Larry began writing columns for InvestorPlace in 2015. Among his highly successful, contrarian picks have been SMCI, INTC, and MGM. You can reach him on Stocktwits at @larryramer.


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