Famed mutual fund manager Peter Lynch once said that the best stock-pickers in the business are only right 6 out of 10 times. That still leaves a 40% error rate, which, when you consider how many picks the pros make, amounts to a lot of losers.
Needless to say, in the more than 750 articles I’ve written for InvestorPlace.com, I’ve picked loads of lemons. I’ve picked my fair share of winners too, but I think it’s only fair that here I provide an honest accounting of my not-so-exceptional calls.
Here, without further ado, are my worst stock picks of 2015:
Repeat Offenders
I’ll start with the picks I consider to be most egregious, and those are the ones that I repeated, time after time, only to be proven horribly and conclusively wrong.
MannKind
Sadly enough, it begins with a company called MannKind (MNKD). I had faith in MannKind, but it was not to be.
1/23 – MNKD: Afrezza Launch Will Propel MannKind Stock. I kicked the New Year off in style, making an awful pick out of the gate in January. I was pumped for the upcoming launch of Afrezza, MannKind’s sole FDA-approved drug. An inhalable insulin product, I figured it would find mass adoption among diabetics, and reasoned that its marketing and distribution partnership with Sanofi (SNY) would boost sales big time.
MNKD is down 72% since then.
5/18 – 3 Simple Reasons the MannKind (MNKD) Stock Rally Will Last. Fast forward to May, and MannKind was rallying off its lows, stimulated by a bullish analyst report, some regulatory troubles for its competition, and strong technicals.
Now, I will say that if you had bought on May 18, then somehow miraculously managed to sell shares on Jun. 8, its peak, you would’ve walked away with 80% gains.
As it stands now, though, shares are down 61% since publication.
It would take me until late October, right before the release of Q3 earnings, to admit that my pick had soured and Afrezza, its prize drug and only hope, was turning out to be a commercial flop.
GoPro
This one was bad. Time and time again I reiterated how GoPro (GPRO) wasn’t getting the love it deserved. It was either the markets that were misunderstanding the stock, or professional analysts that just didn’t get it.
Earlier in the year, I even speculated about whether GPRO would rally back above $90/share. Today, it trades for around $18 a share. In other words, GPRO stock trades significantly lower today than it did at the time any of these articles were published below:
4/29 – Will GoPro (GPRO) Stock Rally Back Above $90?
5/28 – Drones, Virtual Reality Make GoPro (GPRO) Stock a Buy Again
9/1 – Thank You, Mr. Market! Now Buy the Dip in GoPro (GPRO)
9/14 – GoPro Stock: Has GPRO Become a Value Play?
10/7 – Why the GoPro Inc Downgrade Is Absolutely Idiotic (GPRO)
10/14 – GoPro Inc Downgraded – Are Analysts Insane? (GPRO)
Well, that was painful. Unfortunately, there’s more pain to come…
One-Time Wackjobs
Below are a few horrendous calls I made over the course of the year, but thankfully did not repeat. Still, I deserve to be called out on these cringe-worthy picks:
3/9 – Sell Kythera (KYTH) Stock, Another Biotech Ripoff. I caught a lot of flak on this one, and rightfully so – it was one of my worst calls of the year. My mistake? Kythera (KYTH) was eventually bought out, an outcome that I failed to acknowledge despite the power of exclusivity and the buyout-happy nature of biotech. Trading at $51.17 on March 9, the stock would be snapped up for $75/share by June.
7/22 – Angie’s List (ANGI) Stock: STILL a Trash Heap. After a horrible second quarter, Angie’s List (ANGI) shed 20% in a single day, and I was convinced it would fall further. Nope. Instead it ripped off a 93% gain over the next five months.
Alas, there are more picks than I can concisely mention that turned sour on me this year. I called the Bojangles (BOJA) IPO a “home run,” I touted the virtues of GameStop (GME), and I gave Tesla (TSLA) a $100 price target.
No one can pick them all correctly, but I’m doing my best to learn from my losers, become a better investor and writer, and hopefully, one day, get 6 out of 10 right.
As of this writing, John Divine was long Jan 2016 MNKD $7 call options. (They are worthless). You can follow him on Twitter at @divinebizkid or email him at editor@investorplace.com.
