Why Under Armour Inc (UA) Stock Is Still in Trouble

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Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UA, NYSE:UAA) is a classic example where the hype machine doesn’t necessarily translate to market performance. Those that only recognize UA stock as a sports apparel maker have undoubtedly seen their products featured in high-profile advertisements and media highlights.

Why Under Armour Inc (UA) Stock Is Still in Trouble

For example, the Under Armour brand was heavily integrated into NBC’s popular high school football drama Friday Night Lights. With a show piece like that, anyone would be forgiven for believing UA stock to be anything but a key starter.

For quite some time, Under Armour’s role as the next-gen athlete’s brand of choice was not really disputed. Although it went toe to toe with sports industry giants Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) and adidas AG (ADR) (OTCMKTS:ADDYY), it performed admirably. According to InvestorPlace contributor Chris Fraley, UA stock averaged annual returns of 53.5% between 2009 through 2015. In contrast, NKE managed 27.5% — a respectable figure, no doubt, but not to the level of UAA.

UA Stock Has Enjoyed Brand Dominance

Part of that discrepancy is nature. Nike is a stalwart; UA stock is the new kid looking to make a name for itself. More excitement is obviously going to be generated by the youthful vigor of Under Armour. But the enthusiasm isn’t unearned. From Fraley’s analysis, “UA has emerged as a cool, hip alternative to Nike and millennials clearly love their shoes, as it saw 42% increase in footwear sales last quarter.”

Let’s not forget that UA stock also has considerable star power as currency. Although not an exhaustive list — which says something right there — UAA has signed on “Stephen Curry, Michael Phelps, Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Jordan Spieth, Clayton Kershaw, Bryce Harper and Lindsey Vonn.” Even some non-sports fans — I have heard they exist! — can recognize at least two or three names on the list.

Of course, that would be lipstick on a pig if UA stock didn’t bring home the bacon. But its financial performance overall scores top grades. Its revenue growth is the envy of the sports apparel industry. Better yet, it doesn’t sacrifice profitability, maintaining strong margins relative to its competitors. Even after the new car smell is gone, Under Armour is still bringing in the sales.

So what explains the more than 29% loss in UA stock for 2016? To paraphrase a quote from fictional quarterback Jason Street in Friday Night Lights — “Today, you’re champions. Tomorrow, you’re targets. If you want to remain the best, you have to be the best.” Under Armour’s business decisions don’t necessarily reflect that ethos.

Under Armour Has to Foot the Bill

First, there’s that whole fiasco about the share price being listed under UA and UAA. I don’t want to get into a diatribe over the naming peculiarities. Suffice to say, it has raised more than a few eyebrows. The best way to explain it is that, starting from Dec. 7 of last year, UAA are Class A shares with voting power. UA stock is categorized under Class C, and therefore has no voting power. Think Google to Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL), but dumber.

But I really want to focus on the debt. It’s great that UA or UAA or whatever they want to call themselves next has tremendous star power. But that leverage doesn’t come cheap. In just a few short years, debt liabilities ballooned from $53 million to $797 million in the last reporting quarter.

Now I understand that to make money, you have to spend money — hence, the reason companies get into debt. Here’s why I don’t like it for UA stock specifically.

First, sports is a fickle industry.

The star value of a phenom-athlete can deflate quicker than Tom Brady’s footballs. And even if they don’t crumble on the field, pitch or court, stars are human and are liable to make bad choices. San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick’s controversial decision to sit during the national anthem is a prime case study.

Second, I don’t really care how cool millennials think Under Armour is. At the end of the day, retail is hurting, and sports retail especially. Let me just indulge my inner “Captain Obvious” and say this: If the sector was so robust, Sports Authority wouldn’t have gone bankrupt.

Will UA stock make the adjustment? Yes. But so will Nike and adidas. Both are hungry, and looking to reassert themselves.

Rough Situation for UAA

If sports apparel wasn’t such a battle royale, I might be tempted to consider UAA given its sharp decline. Under Armour hasn’t been this “cheap” since 2014. But just because it looks like a discount on paper doesn’t mean the volatility is over.

I warned about this situation last spring. Granted, my article was not well received at all, and for a time, UA stock ebbed and flowed. But finally in October, the prolific spender got a taste of reality.

Contrary to the accusations, I was not short UA stock, nor had any interest in its demise. The markets are an agnostic entity. I call it for what it is. Frankly, I just didn’t see the compelling reason to invest in Under Armour.

Their branding is powerful, even inspirational. They have excellent products, and I would even argue that they introduced a paradigm shift in sports fashion. But we have to separate Under Armour as an apparel maker, and UAA as an investment. Getting the two confused can have drastic consequences, as we are currently witnessing.

As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare. Tweet him at @EnomotoMedia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/01/under-armour-inc-ua-stock-still-trouble/.

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