There Is No Turnaround for Twitter Inc (TWTR) Stock

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TWTR stock - There Is No Turnaround for Twitter Inc (TWTR) Stock

Source: Twitter website

Chris Sacca is one of Silicon Valley’s top investors, having provided early-stage capital to breakout companies like Uber, Instagram and Twilio Inc (NYSE:TWLO). But there is one notable deal that has disappointed him: Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR).

There Is No Turnaround for Twitter Inc (TWTR) StockIn a recent tweet, he noted: “Love the service, hate the stock.”

Yes, hating TWTR stock has been a popular activity on Wall Street. For the year so far, the return is -11%. And since Twitter’s initial public offering in late 2013, the loss is a grueling 65%.

Of course, one of the biggest knocks against Twitter is that the company’s service has limited appeal. Would your grandmother use it? Your father? Probably not.

Sure, Donald Trump is an avid user — and he’s 70 years old! But your dad isn’t the president of the United States.

The Core Problems With TWTR Stock

Let’s face it, Twitter really hasn’t done much to evolve the service. Perhaps this is due to the continual drama in the executive suite. Just some of the departures over the past year include: COO/Head of Sales, Adam Bain; VP of Product, Kevin Weil; VP of Engineering, Alex Roetter; VP of Global Media, Katie Stanton; VP of Business Development, Jana Messerschmidt; and the CTO, Adam Messinger.

It also does not help that the CEO, Jack Dorsey, is on a half-time basis. He also is the CEO of another public company, Square Inc (NYSE:SQ).

Despite all this, there are still some hopeful signs. For example, TWTR has implemented better systems to provide for more relevant content with timelines and notifications. In fact, the company plans to start using machine learning for these efforts. This should also help deal with the offensive content and fake news on the platform, which have been a gargantuan concern for brands.

Then there is livestreaming. This is not only a big part of encouraging more engagement on TWTR, but also has been key to providing premium content offerings, such as live professional sports broadcasts.

Great, right? I think so. But the efforts are really not enough. The fact remains that Twitter’s rivals are seeing much more momentum. Of course, Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) continues to grow at a rapid clip, with revenues spiking 51% to $8.8 billion in the latest quarter and the number of MAUs (monthly active users) increasing by 17% to 1.86 billion. Twitter, though, saw its revenues inch up only 1% to $717 million and the user base to increase by 4% to 319 million.

In the meantime, TWTR must deal with another fast-growing rival, Snap Inc (NYSE:SNAP). Not only is its market cap twice as large as TWTR stock, but the user base is also growing at a much quicker pace. During the past two years, Snap added 87 million MAUs whereas TWTR could muster only 31 million. Oh, and FB’s Instagram added a whopping 300-plus million.

The upshot for TWTR stock? Well, it’s going to get tougher to monetize the ad opportunity. According to Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Graham, he is forecasting that pricing may drop anywhere from 50% to 66%:

“After following up with the company and industry sources, we continue to see a challenging environment for Twitter’s ad business … [Prices] may still need to come down by as much as 50% to 66% in order to align with competitors.”

Then there is an ominous report from Needham & Co. analyst Laura Martin, who thinks that Snap has “replaced TWTR as the #2 social platform” for advertisers.

Bottom Line on TWTR Stock

There are already signs that rivals are taking a toll on Twitter. Note that yesterday Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) announced a $50 million one-year deal for the streaming rights for the Thursday games of the NFL. Yes, the ecommerce giant replaced TWTR, which saw this arrangement as a key to growth. But the unfortunate fact is that the company does not have the resources to play in the expensive world of premium content.

Besides, Twitter stock is far from cheap. Consider that the forward price-earnings ratio is at a nearly 40, which is certainly an expensive multiple for a company that is facing stiff competitive pressures and whose revenues are lagging.

If anything, it’s seems like a no-brainer to instead look at an alternative, like Facebook, which is growing like a weed, has multiple apps and sports a forward P/E ratio of 21.

Tom Taulli runs the InvestorPlace blog IPO Playbook as well as OptionExercise.com, which provides interactive tools & services for employee stock options of pre/post IPO companiesFollow him on Twitter at @ttaulli. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books. They include Artificial Intelligence Basics and the Robotic Process Automation Handbook. His upcoming book is called Generative AI: How ChatGPT and other AI Tools Will Revolutionize Business.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/04/there-is-no-turnaround-for-twitter-inc-twtr-stock/.

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