Retail is bouncing. Over the past month, there have been a series of positive retail earnings reports alongside lots of health holiday sales guides. But Kohl’s Corporation(NYSE:KSS), started its rally much earlier, and KSS stock has been really hot.

There also were a ton of upbeat Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales commentary from companies and analysts alike. To top it off, macro consumer spending and consumer confidence data has been unusually strong.

Put it all together, and it is easy to see why retail stocks have been rallying since November. Retailers appear to be in the middle of their strongest holiday season in recent memory.

Although is up big since November, the SPDR S&P Retail (ETF) (NYSEARCA:XRT) is up only 6% over the past six months. Kohl’s stock is up more than 30% over the same time.

Why? The story at KSS was good even before this retail resurgence. The company’s off-mall, off-price nature made it a retail gem, and the numbers showed this. Comparable sales were trending up towards the flat-line. Gross and operating margins were stable. Store openings exceeded store closings.

Even retail slayer Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) saw the value in KSS, and struck strategic partnerships with the off-mall, off-price retailer. Naturally, then, as retail rebounds, Kohl’s stock will lead the rebound, right?

Not so fast. The reason a lot of retail stocks still have more room to run is because they were so beaten up prior to this holiday 2017 resurgence. But KSS stock wasn’t that beaten up. It was actually in rally mode before this resurgence.

And now, at $50, I think Kohl’s stock looks fully valued. Here’s why.

Why Kohl’s Stock Looks Fully Valued at $50

My thesis on Kohl’s stock is simple. Kohl’s is a winner. But KSS stock, at $50, is not a winner. This is a pure valuation call.

Kohl’s really is doing everything right. They are an off-price retailer in a time when off-price retail is one of the things surviving the Amazon apocalypse. Comparable sales growth has been consistently positive at both Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:ROST) and TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TJX).

Kohl’s is also an off-mall retailer in a time when off-mall retail is another part of retail surviving the Amazon apocalypse. Comparable sales growth has also been consistently positive at Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) and Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY).

Naturally, Kohl’s wins because of its off-price, off-mall nature. This means KSS comps should stay in positive territory, while gross margins should remain flat. Plus, management is cutting fat, taking $250 million of operating expenses out of the system over the next three years. Consequently, operating margins should rise some.

But even if sales growth comes in at 0-2% over the next several years, gross margins stabilize, and operating margins expand, there really isn’t any reason to buy KSS stock at these elevated levels. Such tepid revenue growth plus some margin expansion and buybacks should drive about 5-6% earnings growth.

Right now, the S&P 500 is trading at a 90% premium to its multi-year growth prospects (20x this year’s earnings for 10.5% growth). If you apply that same premium to Kohl’s stock, you get a “fair” price-to-earnings multiple of about 10.5.

But Kohl’s stock currently trades at more than 13x this year’s earnings estimate. Granted, KSS is a full tax-payer with an effective tax rate that has hovered above 35% for the past several years. Because stocks are being bid up by the potential for corporate tax reform, KSS does deserve a bigger growth premium.

But 13x represents a near 140% growth premium. That feels pretty full relative to the S&P 500’s 90% growth premium.

Bottom Line on KSS Stock

Kohl’s stock has been a big winner over the past several months due to its off-price, off-mall nature.

But at $50, it feels like all the good has been priced into KSS stock. I think there are better places in retail to park your money here and now.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long TJX, HD, and AMZN.