Consumer spending tightens up during an economic slowdown as consumers prioritize essentials. This list of essentials typically includes groceries, mortgage payments, and utilities. Such belt-tightening can cause delays in discretionary spending on vehicles, renovations, vacations, and shopping. Accordingly, positioning a portfolio for a potential downturn requires taking a hard look at the products and services provided by one’s portfolio holdings.
Should we enter a recession later this year as forecast, many sectors of the economy will see a sharp slowdown, and their stocks can be expected to fall. However, some companies thrive in lean times and their stocks manage to outperform in a downturn. These stocks are often called “recession-proof” or durable.
Whether it is the essential nature of their business, or their cost advantage compared to their peers, many companies are built to perform well in good economic times and bad. Here are three growth stocks that can thrive despite a slowing economy.
| COST | Costco | $524.44 |
| HUM | Humana | $445.95 |
| MCD | McDonald’s | $289.91 |
Costco (COST)
Groceries are viewed as essential, and consumers who are looking to stretch a dollar during a slowing economy turn to Costco (NASDAQ:COST). This explains why Costco and its stock thrived during the Covid-19 pandemic amid economic uncertainty and consumer anxiety. In fact, Costco performed so well during the pandemic that the company issued a special one-time $10 per share dividend payment.
Today, consumers turn to Costco for not only cheaper groceries, but also cheaper gasoline and clothing items. The company has maintained steady membership prices, earning loyalty from its warehouse club patrons despite economic and market volatility. Notably, Costco hasn’t raised its membership fees since 2017. While the company is seeing weaker demand for discretionary items, its grocery sales remain strong.
Costco’s membership numbers also remain robust. In its most recent quarter, the company reported that its membership revenue increased 6.1% to $1.04 billion. Additionally, its same-store sales grew 3.5% from a year earlier. At the time of writing, COST stock is up 15% so far in 2023.
Humana (HUM)
People prioritize paying their health insurance premiums, no matter what shape the economy is in. Companies prioritize them too. That’s certainly good news for Humana (NYSE:HUM), the fourth largest health insurance provider in the U.S.
Humana and other insurers tend to remain resilient during economic slowdowns, with minimal impact on premium-related revenue. The essential nature of health insurance makes Humana a good defensive stock to own during tough economic times.
As the American population continues to age, the need for health insurance is only expected to grow. Data Bridge Market Research has forecast that the global health insurance market will grow 42% to $2.7 trillion annually by 2030. That’s more good news for Humana, which currently has more than 20 million members. Analysts forecast Humana’s earnings to grow at a 13% compounded annual rate over the next five years, surpassing the healthcare industry’s average of 11.9%.
HUM stock is down 9% this year, but has risen 52% over the past five years.
McDonald’s (MCD)
During difficult economic times, consumers tend to “trade down” to less expensive options. This is especially true when it comes to eating out. As they look to save money, people will search out inexpensive food options. Less Red Lobster and more cheeseburgers and fries. This is why McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) thrives during a recession.
With its drive thru counters still open, McDonald’s and its stock have steadily grown since the pandemic struck. Since March 2020, MCD stock has gained 98%, nearly doubling.
In April, McDonald’s reported strong first-quarter earnings, surpassing Wall Street forecasts with higher prices and increased foot traffic at its global restaurant outlets. The company announced earnings per share of $2.63 compared to the $2.33 that was expected. Revenue in the latest quarter came in at $5.9 billion versus $5.6 billion that was anticipated by analysts. Additionally, same-store sales growth in the U.S. increased 8% during Q1.
McDonald’s experienced consecutive growth in foot traffic at its U.S. outlets for the third quarter in a row, demonstrating strong pricing power. This year, MCD stock is up 11%.
On the date of publication, Joel Baglole did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
