A 2023 stock market recap is a tale of highs and lows. We entered the year after a Fed tightening cycle proved restrictive but seemingly unsuccessful as inflation continued while rates rose. Those factors began squeezing consumers and commercial segments to apparent breaking points. But a rapid reversal transpired in mid-fall, with inflation falling and calls for a soft landing seeming more viable.

That uptick accelerated in December amid rumors of imminent rate cuts, and markets climbed back to all-time highs – offering bulls an early Christmas present while acting as coal in perma-bears’ stockings.

Though the 2023 stock market is ending the year on a high note, some companies did better than most – but others couldn’t ride the wave back up and might not make it through 2024 intact.

2023 Stock Market Winners: Carvana (CVNA)

It’s a bit of a shocker, but Carvana (NYSE:CVNA) is one of 2023’s top-performing stocks after gaining more than 1,000% since January. Though it still trades below mid-pandemic highs, where supply chains sent used car values soaring, Carvana’s re-ascent might be the comeback story of the year. The question is whether the gains are sustainable or whether macro factors pushed shares up despite (not due to) its operational model. For a while, I’ve felt that, despite its 2023 stock market winner status, shares in this stock are materially overvalued.

The company has yet to turn a profit, and today, it trades at more than 18x book value. The latter data point is especially concerning as CVNA’s inventory values fall from previously inflated heights (due to the supply chain crunches), so the overvaluation metric rises even as book value declines.

But the news isn’t all bad. The company’s debt restructuring and other financial engineering initiatives point to prudent management of its core fundamentals, even if they remain somewhat bloated. The Fed’s tightening cycle, though initially tough on Carvana, might prove to be the crucible that toughened Carvana into long-term viability. Whatever your perspective, it’s impossible to argue that it’s one of 2023’s stock market winners.

2023 Stock Market Losers: Dollar General (DG)

Dollar General (NYSE:DG) took a beating this year, paradoxically losing nearly 50% since January despite its apparent status as a recession-proof operating under a cost leadership model. Despite its past successes in tough times, sales slipped badly throughout the year. After earnings missed and forecasts cut, alongside increasing safety concerns, the company brought former CEO Todd Vasos back to try and reinvigorate a flagging enterprise.

The October surprise hasn’t yet fully panned out, so we don’t know the full extent of Vasos’ plan to realign operations. But, as the economy rebounds, discount and value-focused chains like Dollar General will likely fall out of favor. That puts more downward pressure on a stock that can’t afford any further trouble as it is. At a 15.3x price-to-earnings ratio, the market is pricing substantial sales and income increases over the next few periods. If those don’t come to fruition, though, this stock could end up on 2024’s list of stock market losers as well.

2023 Stock Market Winners: Nvidia (NVDA)

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) wasn’t among 2023’s top stock market gainers, though its 244% return is nothing to dismiss out of hand. Still, Nvidia’s rapid ascent marked a major pivot point as markets turned to AI and machine learning enthusiasm in an era reminiscent of the Dot-Com boom. Unlike that period, companies like Nvidia have a range of physical, material, and in-demand products that support multiple sectors and ensure demand even if AI exuberance wanes.

Analysts project continued growth, and consensus estimates sit (on average) 32% higher than today’s pricing. The most bullish peg its fair value price even higher, with top-end estimates breaking $1,000. Whether that projection holds remains to be seen, but one thing is clear. Nvidia’s sector dominance set it apart as a stock to buy and hold for the long run. At the same time, an innovative spirit keeps the company pushing forward rather than resting on its laurels.

2023 Stock Market Losers: Moderna (MRNA)

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) couldn’t maintain its momentum post-pandemic, and shares fell 50% this year. That marks a 75% decline from its past highs, and there’s little in the pipeline to reassure investors that this is temporary trouble.

Just look to the company’s most recent earnings report for a snapshot of how dire its situation is. Despite nearly 10% market share gains, the company couldn’t convert expansion into income and lost $3.6 billion for the quarter. That’s compared to a $1 billion net income gain the previous year, so Moderna’s digging itself into a deep hole from which it might not emerge completely unscathed.

Ultimately, like so many pandemic period stocks, Moderna was tailor-made for a specific window in time and didn’t have the operational (or financial) chops to succeed without it. As we see COVID-19 vaccine sales sliding further, don’t expect this 2023 stock market loser to rebound soon.

2023 Stock Market Winners: Riot Platforms (RIOT)

Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) isn’t particularly unique or noteworthy. Instead, it stands out among 2023’s stock market winners as a stand-in for Bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) rapid re-ascent. The crypto’s prices surged 160% this year, but Riot did even better – posting a 440% gain after energy management concerns and similar headwinds abated.

If you’re bullish on crypto but don’t want to deal with the trouble of managing a physical wallet or the risk of holding coins on an exchange, investing in stocks like Riot is the next best thing. Riot, in particular, has strengths setting it apart from other miners. Specifically, the company keeps costs shockingly low at just 22% of mining revenue. That also points to efficiencies and improvements as the company posted a 33% cost of revenue the previous year.

The company’s growth is also substantial, mining 64 more coins during this quarter than in the same period last year. And, as Bitcoin’s price climbs, those efficiencies and growth initiatives see gains compound. If crypto is set for the bull market many expect, then this top stock of 2023 could make next year’s list too.

2023 Stock Market Losers: Enphase Energy (ENPH)

Solar stocks struggled this year, and Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) led the losers. Shares have fallen nearly 50% since January, and its December uptick doesn’t seem to have the strength to push it back to previous highs. Enphase’s current strategy is a full pivot into home energy solutions, away from its narrower focus as a microinverter manufacturer. While diversification and expansion can be a good thing, of course, in this case, it’s making ENPH a small fish in a competitive pond.

Still, the company is pushing hard geographically and is expanding into commercial markets. If this shotgun approach to operational diversification pays off, then ENPH could rebound. But, still trading at 26x earnings and 18.5x book value, this losing stock remains overvalued by most metrics.

2023 Stock Market Winners: Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) beat the odds this year and fought its way out of both bearish sentiment and the SPAC stink that sunk so many other stocks like Bark Inc (NYSE:BARK) and Buzzfeed Inc (NASDAQ:BZFD). Instead, markets began fully appreciating Palantir’s unique position in defense and government dealings while acknowledging its expansion into commercial endeavors. And, of course, the stock enjoyed a bump from AI madness. That sentiment is embodied by one analyst, who calls the company “the Messi of AI” as shares surged throughout the year.

But Palantir also proved its profitability, posting its fourth consecutive profitable quarter. This effectively marks a pivot point for Palantir, as many detractors decried the stock as having limited moat and scalability issues alongside financial mismanagement. Those bearish forecasts didn’t bear fruit, though, making the stock one of 2023’s top performers.

On the date of publication, Jeremy Flint held no positions in the securities mentioned. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.