Black Gold Rush: 7 Oil Stocks Poised to Surge on Geopolitical Shockwaves

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  • Exxon Mobil (XOM): Exxon Mobil’s integrated hydrocarbon business could rise in relevance.
  • ConocoPhillips (COP): ConocoPhillips could swing higher on possible supply chain disruptions.
  • Occidental Petroleum (OXY): Occidental Petroleum could see its high-end estimates materialize.
  • Read more about the top oil stocks to buy and hold today!
Oil Stocks - Black Gold Rush: 7 Oil Stocks Poised to Surge on Geopolitical Shockwaves

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At the moment, targeting oil stocks might not seem the most compelling idea. While the earlier flashpoint in the Middle East – with Iran and Israel lobbing missiles against each other – was a pressing matter, tensions seem to have subsided. Still, it’s no time to lose vigilance.

First, a miscalculation could easily escalate the matter. Currently, Israel is conducting a military campaign against Hamas for its terror attack last year. While Israel initially attracted sympathies the world over at the beginning of the violence, the campaign has subsequently courted controversies. This dynamic could potentially lead to an escalation, which may end up disrupting key oil supply chains.

Second, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains a hot conflict and it could get even hotter. With the Senate recently passing military aid to Ukraine, the U.S. has signaled a commitment to protect democracy. As well, Ukrainian forces continue to attack Russian oil infrastructure, which may significantly impact prices.

Overall, the situation is begging for a rise of the hydrocarbon industry. With that, below are oil stocks to consider.

Exxon Mobil (XOM)

Exxon Retail Gas Location
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An integrated oil and gas giant, Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) covers multiple areas of the hydrocarbon value chain. Per its public profile, the company operates through its Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products and Specialty Products segments. Since the start of the year, XOM stock gained over 18% of its equity value.

Financially, it must be stated that Exxon Mobil has been rather choppy. In fiscal 2023, the company’s average positive earnings surprise came out to 3.45%. However, in the second and third quarters, the oil giant missed its bottom-line targets.

For the current fiscal year, Wall Street experts anticipate earnings per share to land at $9.33 on revenue of $335.45 billion. However, these stats are disappointing compared to last year’s results of $9.52 EPS on sales of $344.58 billion.

Still, the high-side targets call for earnings of $11.08 per share on sales of $384.24 billion. Given the present backdrop, I believe the optimistic case makes more sense. Thus, XOM is one of the oil stocks to buy.

ConocoPhillips (COP)

Oil. 3D Illustration. Oil stocks are up.
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Headquartered in Houston, Texas, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) specializes in the exploration and production (upstream) component of the hydrocarbon value chain. It also transports and markets various products, including crude oil, bitumen and natural gas. It features operations in multiple parts of the world. Since the start of the year, COP stock gained 10%.

Overall, ConocoPhillips has been a strong financial performer. Last fiscal year, the company’s average positive earnings surprise came out to 7.28%. About the only blemish is that the firm missed its EPS target in Q2.

For the current fiscal year, experts are looking for earnings of $9.01 on revenue of $59.23 billion. That’s only a modest improvement over last year’s results of $8.77 EPS on sales of $58.57 billion. However, the most optimistic target calls for EPS of $13.68 on sales of $70.31 billion.

These projections seem likelier based on possible global oil supply chain disruptions. Therefore, COP should be on your radar for oil stocks to buy.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

Person holding cellphone with logo of American company Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) on screen in front of website. Focus on phone display. Unmodified photo.
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Another upstream-focused enterprise, Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) engages in the acquisition, exploration and development of hydrocarbon properties in the U.S., the Middle East and North Africa. Aside from its upstream oil and gas business, it also features midstream and marketing units. Since the beginning of the year, OXY stock returned more than 12%.

Financially, Occidental has been hit or miss. However, in fiscal 2023, its hits were much bigger than its misses. Overall, the company’s average earnings surprise clocked in at 6.75%. While Occidental missed bottom-line targets in the first half, it posted $1.18 EPS in Q3. That was against a target of 84 cents.

For fiscal 2024, experts anticipate earnings of $3.80 per share on revenue of $30.23 billion. That’s up modestly from last year’s results of $3.69 EPS on sales of $28.92 billion. However, the optimistic target calls for $5.39 EPS on sales of $31.9 billion. That seems a more probable outcome based on the geopolitical framework.

Enbridge (ENB)

Enbridge (ENB) sign on the head Enbridge office in Toronto, Canada.
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A midstream giant among oil stocks, Enbridge (NYSE:ENB) operates as an energy infrastructure firm. Primarily, the company keeps the lights on through its Liquids Pipelines unit. Per its public profile, Enbridge’s crude oil system consists of 28,661 kilometers (17,809 miles) of pipelines. While relevant, ENB stock has struggled for traction this year, losing about 2%.

Generally, Enbridge’s financial performance has been quietly reliable. To be fair, the company missed its bottom-line target in Q4. However, most of the time, it either matches the Street’s EPS targets or slightly beats, as was the case in Q3.

For fiscal 2024, analysts anticipate EPS to land at $2.09, a modest improvement over last year’s result of $2.04. On the top line, they’re looking at sales of $32.36 billion. That’s under 2% growth from 2023’s haul of $31.86 billion. Still, an impact against global oil supply chains could see increased demand. Therefore, the high-end revenue target of $34.44 billion could be realistic.

Kinder Morgan (KMI)

Kinder Morgan logo on a sign outside the company headquarters in Houston.
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Another midstream specialist, Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) primarily is known for operating its natural gas pipeline network. However, the company also features the Products Pipeline unit, which owns and operates refined petroleum products. The beauty of this business is that because mobility-related infrastructure is still dominated by hydrocarbons, it commands significant relevance.

Since the start of the year, KMI gained almost 6%. If global oil supply chains come under pressure, Kinder Morgan could see its market value rise. Notably, the company’s Q3 and Q4 performances were rather poor, missing their EPS targets. However, in Q1 of this year, Kinder Morgan matched the EPS target of 34 cents.

For the current fiscal year, covering experts believe earnings can land at $1.22 per share, up from last year’s $1.06. Also, revenue could hit $17.27 billion, representing a 13.9% lift from 2023’s tally of $15.16 billion. What’s more, the most optimistic forecast calls for revenue of $19.72 billion.

Again, with geopolitics the way that it is, it wouldn’t be the most unreasonable projection. KMI is one of the oil stocks to keep on your radar.

Murphy USA (MUSA)

Murphy USA gas station and convenience store located on an out parcel of a Walmart Supercenter
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Technically falling under the specialty retail space, Murphy USA (NYSE:MUSA) is an intriguing idea among oil stocks. Per its corporate profile, the company markets retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. Specifically, it operates retail stores under the following brands: Murphy USA, Murphy Express and QuickChek. These stores are often located near popular big-box retailers, enhancing their viability.

What’s particularly attractive about these downstream enterprises is the underlying necessity. Most people are still driving combustion-powered vehicles. So, irrespective of outside pressures, consumers still have to fill up. Murphy USA’s earnings performance in 2023 reflects this dynamic with a positive surprise of 13.15%.

For the current fiscal year, covering experts believe revenue could come in at $21.8 billion. That’s up only 1.3% compared to last year’s print of $21.53 billion, which is disappointing. However, the high-side target of $24.19 billion isn’t out of the question because of the criticality of the business. Thus, it’s one of the oil stocks to consider.

HF Sinclair (DINO)

In the field, the oil pump in the evening, the evening silhouette of the pumping unit, the silhouette of the oil pump. Oil stocks and energy stocks
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Operating as an independent energy company, HF Sinclair (NYSE:DINO) produces and markets a variety of hydrocarbon products. They include gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products and specialty chemicals, among others. Since the start of the year, DINO stock gained a bit over 2%. While that doesn’t sound like much, in the past year, it’s up 31%.

Fundamentally, so long as the world runs on hydrocarbons, HF Sinclair should command permanent relevance. Yes, electric vehicles are gradually making inroads. However, the sector’s demand fallout, combined with booming sales of hybrid vehicles should mean increased revenue (and earnings) for the downstream specialist.

Now, the forward narrative for HF Sinclair doesn’t seem that enticing when looking at consensus analyst projections. For 2024, EPS may reach $6.70 on revenue of $31.73 billion. However, that’s a noticeable decline from last year. Still, the high-side sales target calls for $35 billion. That seems realistic based on the practical monopoly that the oil industry has on powered mobility.

On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare. Tweet him at @EnomotoMedia.


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